Bundesliga, round 9 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Borussia Dortmund — Elversberg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites: 78% against 7% for the opponent, draw 15%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 72%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Borussia Dortmund are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
- Borussia Dortmund are 267 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Borussia Dortmund — No. 2, 18 pts; Elversberg — No. 7, 13 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Borussia Dortmund: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund — Elversberg What is xG? | 2.8–1.0 | |
| Borussia Dortmund not to lose | 93% | |
| Elversberg not to lose | 22% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 72% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 28% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund goals
- Elversberg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Borussia Dortmund | Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 1.77 | 1.42 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.42 | 1.88 |
| Shots | 15.1 | 12.5 |
| On target | 5.5 | 4.7 |
| Corners | 6.9 | 5.4 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Possession, % | 55 | 50 |
Form
- 31.10away · Bayern München2:2
- 27.10Werder Bremen3:2
- 24.10Eintracht Frankfurt1:0
- 20.10away · Sabah FK2:1
- 17.10away · Union Berlin0:0
- 30.10Mainz 054:1
- 27.10Darmstadt0:2
- 24.10away · RB Leipzig0:4
- 17.10Augsburg4:3
- 10.10away · Union Berlin0:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Bayern München | 8 | 5 | +19 | 18 |
| 2, Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 3, Champions League | Freiburg | 8 | 5 | +8 | 16 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 817762The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.9
- 2530452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.8
- 5824191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →