Bundesliga, round 9 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
VfB Stuttgart — Werder Bremen
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
VfB Stuttgart are clear favourites: 58% against 19% for the opponent, draw 24%.
3.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 71%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings VfB Stuttgart are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- VfB Stuttgart are 167 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: VfB Stuttgart — No. 11, 9 pts; Werder Bremen — No. 5, 15 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 1 win, Werder Bremen 2, 2 draws.
- Days of rest before the match: VfB Stuttgart 4, Werder Bremen 7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart — Werder Bremen What is xG? | 2.3–1.3 | |
| VfB Stuttgart not to lose | 81% | |
| Werder Bremen not to lose | 42% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 71% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 29% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart goals
- Werder Bremen goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 2.01 | 1.73 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.54 | 1.43 |
| Shots | 16.6 | 15.5 |
| On target | 5.8 | 6.7 |
| Corners | 6.3 | 4.9 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Possession, % | 56 | 49 |
Form
- 03.11away · Galatasaray0:2
- 31.10away · Bayer Leverkusen4:2
- 28.10away · Paderborn1:0
- 23.10Borussia Mönchengladbach2:3
- 20.10Atlético Madrid1:1
- 31.10Hoffenheim2:0
- 27.10away · Borussia Dortmund2:3
- 24.10away · Mainz 053:2
- 17.10Paderborn2:2
- 09.10away · Borussia Dortmund2:2
Head to head
- 26.04.2026VfB Stuttgart — Werder Bremen1:1
- 14.12.2025Werder Bremen — VfB Stuttgart0:4
- 13.04.2025VfB Stuttgart — Werder Bremen1:2
- 30.11.2024Werder Bremen — VfB Stuttgart2:2
- 21.04.2024Werder Bremen — VfB Stuttgart2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | +11 | 15 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | +2 | 13 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 8 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 781571The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.8
- 817762The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.9
- 2530452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →