Bundesliga, round 9 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Mainz 05 — Bayern München
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Bayern München are clear favourites: 76% against 8% for the opponent, draw 17%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 74%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayern München are about 1.3 goals per match stronger.
- Bayern München are 247 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Mainz 05 — No. 9, 10 pts; Bayern München — No. 1, 18 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Mainz 05: 3 defeats in a row; Bayern München: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Mainz 05 1 win, Bayern München 3, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Mainz 05 8, Bayern München 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Mainz 05 — Bayern München What is xG? | 1.1–2.8 | |
| Mainz 05 not to lose | 24% | |
| Bayern München not to lose | 92% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 74% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 26% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Mainz 05
- Mainz 05 goals
- Bayern München goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Mainz 05 | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.6 | 3.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| xG per match | 2.04 | 3.43 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.39 | 0.97 |
| Shots | 17.3 | 22.6 |
| On target | 6.3 | 8.8 |
| Corners | 6.1 | 7.7 |
| Cards | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Possession, % | 53 | 62 |
Form
- 30.10away · Elversberg1:4
- 27.10away · Bochum0:2
- 24.10Werder Bremen2:3
- 17.10away · Schalke 041:0
- 10.10Bayer Leverkusen3:4
- 03.11away · Atlético Madrid2:0
- 31.10Borussia Dortmund2:2
- 28.10Magdeburg6:1
- 25.10away · Freiburg3:1
- 21.10Arsenal2:2
Head to head
- 25.04.2026Mainz 05 — Bayern München3:4
- 14.12.2025Bayern München — Mainz 052:2
- 26.04.2025Bayern München — Mainz 053:0
- 14.12.2024Mainz 05 — Bayern München2:1
- 30.10.2024Mainz 05 — Bayern München0:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Bayern München | 8 | 5 | +19 | 18 |
| 2, Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 8 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 781571The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.8
- 2530452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.8
- 5824191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 76% will not happen in roughly 24 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →