Bundesliga, round 9 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
RB Leipzig — Augsburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
RB Leipzig are clear favourites: 67% against 13% for the opponent, draw 20%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 73%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings RB Leipzig are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
- RB Leipzig are 200 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: RB Leipzig — No. 4, 15 pts; Augsburg — No. 10, 9 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- RB Leipzig: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: RB Leipzig 3 wins, Augsburg 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: RB Leipzig — Augsburg What is xG? | 2.6–1.2 | |
| RB Leipzig not to lose | 87% | |
| Augsburg not to lose | 33% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 73% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 27% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | RB Leipzig | Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 2.08 | 1.90 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.84 | 2.27 |
| Shots | 14.9 | 17.6 |
| On target | 5.8 | 6.8 |
| Corners | 4.9 | 5.3 |
| Cards | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 47 |
Form
- 31.10away · Schalke 042:0
- 27.10away · RW Essen2:1
- 24.10Elversberg4:0
- 21.10away · Real Madrid1:4
- 17.10away · Bayern München1:6
- 31.10Freiburg1:2
- 27.10away · Sonnenhof Großaspach4:2
- 24.10Union Berlin1:1
- 17.10away · Elversberg3:4
- 10.10Bayern München2:2
Head to head
- 07.03.2026RB Leipzig — Augsburg2:1
- 25.10.2025Augsburg — RB Leipzig0:6
- 14.02.2025Augsburg — RB Leipzig0:0
- 28.09.2024RB Leipzig — Augsburg4:0
- 10.02.2024Augsburg — RB Leipzig2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Champions League | Freiburg | 8 | 5 | +8 | 16 |
| 4, Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | +11 | 15 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 | Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 8 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 781571The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.8
- 817762The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.9
- 2530452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 5824191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →