Segunda Division, round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, 20:30 (UTC+3)

Castellón — Eldense

Model prediction for 21 November

Castellón64%

Draw22%

Eldense14%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Castellón are clear favourites: 64% against 14% for the opponent, draw 22%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

By the strength ratings Castellón are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Castellón are 312 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Castellón — No. 1, 27 pts; Eldense — No. 15, 14 pts. A gap of 13 pts.
Castellón: unbeaten in 4.
Last 2 meetings: Castellón 1 win, Eldense 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Castellón — Eldense What is xG?		2.0–0.9
Castellón not to lose		86%
Eldense not to lose		36%
No draw		78%
Both teams to score: yes		54%
Both teams to score: no		46%
Total over 2.5		56%
Total under 2.5		44%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Castellón
Castellón goals
Eldense goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Castellón	Eldense
Goals scored per match	2.2	1.1
Goals conceded per match	0.5	1.2
xG per match	1.91	1.46
Opponents’ xG	1.03	1.17
Shots	14.1	13.4
On target	5.1	4.4
Corners	4.2	5.3
Cards	1.8	2.3
Possession, %	60	52

Averages per match: Castellón — the last 10, Eldense — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Castellón

01.11away · Burgos CF1:1
29.10away · Conquense3:0
25.10Sporting Gijón4:0
17.10away · Las Palmas3:0
11.10away · FC Andorra0:1

Eldense

01.11Granada0:2
29.10away · Atlético Baleares1:0
25.10away · Albacete0:2
18.10away · Real Valladolid3:2
10.10Córdoba2:1

Head to head

18.05.2025Castellón — Eldense1:1
06.10.2024Eldense — Castellón2:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Castellón	12	8	3	1	23–5	+18	27
2, Promotion	Almería	12	8	2	2	23–10	+13	26
14	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	13–15	-2	14
15	Eldense	12	4	2	6	13–17	-4	14
16	Celta Fortuna	12	3	4	5	18–23	-5	13

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

16:00
SabadellGranadapreliminary
442927
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
18:15
Real Sociedad BCádizpreliminary
492724
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
23:00
TenerifeMallorcapreliminary
303139
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →