Segunda Division, round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, 23:00 (UTC+3)

Tenerife — Mallorca

Model prediction for 21 November

Tenerife30%

Draw31%

Mallorca39%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Mallorca are slightly stronger: 39% against 30%, draw 31%.

The model expects few goals: 2.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.

Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 47%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
In recent matches the betting market rated Mallorca higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Tenerife — No. 14, 14 pts; Mallorca — No. 5, 22 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
Tenerife: winless in 5; Mallorca: unbeaten in 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Tenerife — Mallorca What is xG?		1.0–1.2
Tenerife not to lose		61%
Mallorca not to lose		70%
No draw		69%
Both teams to score: yes		47%
Both teams to score: no		53%
Total over 2.5		41%
Total under 2.5		59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Tenerife
Tenerife goals
Mallorca goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Tenerife	Mallorca
Goals scored per match	1.0	1.3
Goals conceded per match	1.4	0.5
xG per match	0.79	1.55
Opponents’ xG	1.21	1.22
Shots	10.5	13.4
On target	2.9	4.2
Corners	4.4	5.8
Cards	2.6	3.2
Possession, %	42	54

Averages per match: Tenerife — the last 10, Mallorca — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Tenerife

25.10away · Sabadell1:1
19.10away · Celta Fortuna1:1
12.10Girona1:1
05.10away · Córdoba2:3
26.09Cádiz1:1

Mallorca

02.11Cádiz2:1
24.10away · Leganés1:1
17.10away · Eibar1:1
11.10Las Palmas3:1
04.10away · Girona0:0

Head to head

17.01.2024Tenerife — Mallorca0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
4, Promotion play-offs	Granada	12	7	2	3	20–14	+6	23
5, Promotion play-offs	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	15–7	+8	22
6, Promotion play-offs	Sporting Gijón	12	7	1	4	13–13	0	22
13	Real Valladolid	12	4	3	5	20–19	+1	15
14	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	13–15	-2	14
15	Eldense	12	4	2	6	13–17	-4	14

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

16:00
SabadellGranadapreliminary
442927
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
18:15
Real Sociedad BCádizpreliminary
492724
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
20:30
CastellónEldensepreliminary
642214
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →