UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Celta Vigo — Union St.Gilloise
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Celta Vigo 40%, Union St.Gilloise 34%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- Celta Vigo's starting XI is worth €49m, Union St.Gilloise's €28m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings Union St.Gilloise are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Celta Vigo — No. 29, 0 pts; Union St.Gilloise — No. 12, 4 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Union St.Gilloise: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Celta Vigo — Union St.Gilloise What is xG? | 1.5–1.4 | |
| Celta Vigo not to lose | 66% | |
| Union St.Gilloise not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo goals
- Union St.Gilloise goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 15.10Juventus1:2
- 11.10away · Elche0:0
- 19.09Racing Santander5:0
- 16.09away · Omonia Nicosia0:1
- 13.09Málaga1:1
- 15.10Real Sociedad1:1
- 11.10OH Leuven1:1
- 20.09away · Royal Antwerp2:0
- 17.09away · Viktoria Plzeň3:0
- 12.09Lommel5:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sparta Prague | 2 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
| 12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Union St.Gilloise | 2 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
| 13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Rennes | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 28 | Anderlecht | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Celta Vigo | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- MilanFerencvárospreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Real SociedadLyonpreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- RennesOlympiacospreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary6022181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary2825472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →