UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Celtic — Beşiktaş
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Celtic 40%, Beşiktaş 34%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- Beşiktaş's starting XI is worth €106m, Celtic's €39m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings Celtic are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Celtic — No. 34, 0 pts; Beşiktaş — No. 4, 6 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Celtic — Beşiktaş What is xG? | 1.5–1.4 | |
| Celtic not to lose | 66% | |
| Beşiktaş not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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- Handicap Celtic
- Celtic goals
- Beşiktaş goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 15.10away · Benfica1:4
- 11.10away · Motherwell2:0
- 20.09Rangers0:1
- 17.09Ferencváros1:3
- 09.09away · St. Johnstone1:0
- 15.10away · Hoffenheim3:2
- 11.10Kocaelispor2:1
- 20.09away · Amed Sportif2:3
- 17.09Marseille4:1
- 11.09Erzurumspor FK3:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Straight to the round of 16 | Benfica | 2 | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 4, Straight to the round of 16 | Beşiktaş | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 33 | Ararat Armenia | 2 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Celtic | 2 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | NK Celje | 2 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- MilanFerencvárospreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Real SociedadLyonpreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- RennesOlympiacospreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary6022181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary2825472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →