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Paraguayan Primera Division · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio ueno Luis Salinas Tanasio

Luqueño — Nacional (PAR)

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Model prediction and result

0:3Came true
Luqueño19%
Draw26%
Nacional (PAR)55%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Nacional (PAR) to win (55%), came true.

Nacional (PAR) are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Nacional (PAR) are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
  • Nacional (PAR) are 194 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Luqueño 1 win, Nacional (PAR) 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Luqueño — Nacional (PAR) What is xG?0.9–1.6
Luqueño not to lose45%
Nacional (PAR) not to lose81%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes48%
Both teams to score: no52%
Total over 2.546%
Total under 2.554%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Luqueño
  • Luqueño goals
  • Nacional (PAR) goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 8′Fabrizio Jara · Nacional (PAR)0:1
  2. 17′Roberto Ramírez · Nacional (PAR)
  3. 31′Aldo Maíz · Luqueño
  4. 35′Hugo Benítez · Nacional (PAR)0:2
  5. 37′Leandro Meza · Nacional (PAR)0:3
  6. 48′Aldo Maíz · Luqueño
  7. 53′Facundo Wiechniak · Luqueño
  8. 71′Samuel Beltrán · Luqueño
  9. 90′Mauro Coronel · Nacional (PAR)
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Jordán Santacruz ↔ Roberto Ramírez · Nacional (PAR)
  2. 46′Samuel Beltrán ↔ Giovanni Bogado · Luqueño
  3. 46′Oliver López ↔ Fernando Benítez · Luqueño
  4. 46′Kevin Pereira ↔ Jonathan Ramos · Luqueño
  5. 46′Francisco Pumpido ↔ Carlos Espínola · Nacional (PAR)
  6. 50′Fernando Bobadilla ↔ Walter González · Luqueño
  7. 71′Marcelo Pérez ↔ Iván Maggi · Luqueño
  8. 72′Ignacio Bailone ↔ Hugo Benítez · Nacional (PAR)
  9. 82′Orlando Gaona Lugo ↔ Josué Colmán · Nacional (PAR)
  10. 87′Gastón Benítez ↔ Sebastián Vargas · Nacional (PAR)

Match statistics

LuqueñoNacional (PAR)
  • 35Possession, %65
  • 7Shots12
  • 3On target7
  • 1Big chances2
  • 5Corners8
  • 12Fouls14
  • 1Offsides2
  • 2Yellow cards2
  • 1Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Luqueño

  1. GKNicolás Campisi6.1
  2. DFAlexis Cantero6.1
  3. DFIgor Shkolik6.3
  4. DFFernando Benítez45′5.6
  5. DFFacundo Wiechniak5.5
  6. MFGiovanni Bogado45′5.9
  7. MFJonathan Ramos45′6.1
  8. MFAldo Maíz48′4.5
  9. MFMarcelo Ojeda5.8
  10. FWWalter González (C)50′6.0
  11. FWIván Maggi71′6.0
Came on (5)
  1. MFSamuel Beltrán45′6.1
  2. FWMarcelo Pérez19′6.1
  3. FWKevin Pereira45′6.7
  4. DFOliver López45′6.2
  5. MFFernando Bobadilla40′6.3

Nacional (PAR)

  1. GKSantiago Rojas (C)7.6
  2. DFRodrigo Melgarejo7.3
  3. DFCarlos Espínola45′7.4
  4. DFSebastián Vargas87′7.5
  5. DFMauro Coronel7.9
  6. MFRoberto Ramírez45′6.7
  7. MFFabrizio Jara8.5
  8. MFLeandro Meza7.7
  9. FWJosué Colmán82′8.2
  10. FWIván Valdez7.8
  11. FWHugo Benítez72′8.1
Came on (5)
  1. MFFrancisco Pumpido45′6.2
  2. MFOrlando Gaona Lugo8′
  3. FWIgnacio Bailone18′6.2
  4. DFGastón Benítez3′
  5. MFJordán Santacruz45′6.6

Form

Luqueño

  • 24.10away · Libertad0:1
  • 19.10Sportivo San Lorenzo3:2
  • 11.10Cerro Porteño0:3
  • 05.10away · Sportivo Trinidense2:3
  • 25.09Guaraní0:1

Nacional (PAR)

  • 24.10Sportivo Trinidense0:1
  • 17.10away · Guaraní2:0
  • 13.10Recoleta1:0
  • 07.10away · Olimpia1:1
  • 26.09Sportivo Ameliano1:1

Head to head

  • 24.08.2026Nacional (PAR) — Luqueño2:0
  • 28.03.2026Nacional (PAR) — Luqueño3:2
  • 28.01.2026Luqueño — Nacional (PAR)1:2
  • 13.10.2025Nacional (PAR) — Luqueño1:1
  • 30.07.2025Luqueño — Nacional (PAR)2:1

Full record: 16 meetings →

Next matches

  • Nacional (PAR)Sportivo San Lorenzo4 November · Paraguayan Primera
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.5
  • Rubio ÑúLuqueño6 November · Paraguayan Primera
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6

Paraguayan Primera on the same day

  • Sportivo San LorenzoLibertad
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
  • Cerro PorteñoOlimpia
    XThe most likely outcome did not happen: XFinal score 0:2. Model's score: 2:2.2.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →