Segunda Division, round 8 · Monday, 5 October, 21:30 MSK · Estadio Bahrain Victorious Nuevo Arcángel de Córdoba

Córdoba — Tenerife

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Model prediction and result

3:2Came true

Córdoba56%

Draw24%

Tenerife19%

Model estimate at 20:50 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, Córdoba to win (56%), came true.

Córdoba are clear favourites: 56% against 19% for the opponent, draw 24%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 46%.

Why

By the strength ratings Córdoba are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Córdoba — Tenerife What is xG?		1.6–0.8
Córdoba not to lose		81%
Tenerife not to lose		44%
No draw		76%
Both teams to score: yes		46%
Both teams to score: no		54%
Total over 2.5		44%
Total under 2.5		56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Córdoba
Córdoba goals
Tenerife goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Córdoba

27.09away · Real Valladolid1:3
18.09away · Albacete2:1
12.09Almería0:2
07.09away · Sabadell2:3
30.08Granada1:3

Tenerife

26.09Cádiz1:1
19.09away · Castellón0:5
13.09Leganés2:0
05.09away · Real Sociedad B1:1
28.08Sporting Gijón0:1

Head to head

15.02.2025Tenerife — Córdoba2:3
08.12.2024Córdoba — Tenerife3:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
11	Real Valladolid	9	3	3	3	13–11	+2	12
12	Tenerife	9	3	3	3	11–13	-2	12
13	Celta Fortuna	9	3	2	4	14–15	-1	11
17	FC Andorra	9	3	1	5	13–15	-2	10
18	Córdoba	9	3	0	6	14–20	-6	9
19, Relegation	Real Sociedad B	9	2	2	5	12–17	-5	8

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

19:30
EldenseCórdoba10 October · Segunda Division
343036
XThe most likely outcome did not happen: XFinal score 2:1. Model's score: 2:2.2.8
22:00
TenerifeGirona12 October · Segunda Division
333037
XThe most likely outcome came true: XFinal score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →