FA Cup · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Crewe Alexandra — AFC Wimbledon
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
AFC Wimbledon are clear favourites: 48% against 26% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AFC Wimbledon are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Crewe Alexandra — AFC Wimbledon What is xG? | 1.2–1.6 | |
| Crewe Alexandra not to lose | 52% | |
| AFC Wimbledon not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Crewe Alexandra
- Crewe Alexandra goals
- AFC Wimbledon goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Crewe Alexandra | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| xG per match | 1.27 | 0.38 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.15 | 1.52 |
| Shots | 12.3 | 10.3 |
| On target | 4.7 | 3.7 |
| Corners | 3.3 | 5.7 |
| Cards | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Possession, % | 44 | 44 |
Form
- 25.08away · Barnsley2:3
- 08.08Accrington Stanley2:1
- 01.11Doncaster Rovers1:2
- 12.08away · Stockport County1:3
- 02.11Dagenham & Redbridge0:1
- 27.08away · Fulham0:3
- 08.08Newport County1:1
- 01.11Gateshead FC0:2
- 26.08away · Reading1:2
- 12.08away · Gillingham1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
FA Cup on the same day
- 3727371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 6022171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 2626482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.8
- 4027341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 2826462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- 4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →