FA Cup · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Milton Keynes Dons — Swindon Town
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Milton Keynes Dons are clear favourites: 48% against 26% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Milton Keynes Dons are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Milton Keynes Dons are 163 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Milton Keynes Dons — Swindon Town What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Milton Keynes Dons not to lose | 74% | |
| Swindon Town not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Milton Keynes Dons
- Milton Keynes Dons goals
- Swindon Town goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Milton Keynes Dons | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| xG per match | 0.89 | 0.65 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.16 | 1.02 |
| Shots | 9.0 | 14.5 |
| On target | 6.0 | 5.8 |
| Corners | 6.3 | 5.3 |
| Cards | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 48 |
Form
- 08.08away · Norwich City1:4
- 09.01Oxford United1:1
- 06.12Oldham Athletic3:1
- 01.11away · Colchester United3:2
- 12.08away · Bristol City0:2
- 08.08away · Cardiff City2:3
- 20.01away · Salford City2:3
- 06.12Bolton Wanderers4:0
- 01.11away · Rotherham United2:1
- 12.08away · Cardiff City1:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
FA Cup on the same day
- 3727371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 6022171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 2626482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.8
- 4027341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 2826462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- 3927341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →