UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Crystal Palace — Hoffenheim
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Crystal Palace are clear favourites: 62% against 16% for the opponent, draw 21%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- Crystal Palace's starting XI is worth €274m, Hoffenheim's €104m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings Crystal Palace are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Crystal Palace — No. 15, 3 pts; Hoffenheim — No. 30, 0 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Hoffenheim: 4 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Crystal Palace — Hoffenheim What is xG? | 2.1–1.0 | |
| Crystal Palace not to lose | 84% | |
| Hoffenheim not to lose | 38% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace goals
- Hoffenheim goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10away · Lyon2:3
- 11.10Nottingham Forest3:1
- 20.09away · Leeds United0:0
- 17.09Lech Poznań4:0
- 12.09Ipswich Town2:3
- 15.10Beşiktaş2:3
- 10.10Hamburger SV2:3
- 20.09away · Paderborn1:3
- 17.09away · OFI Crete0:2
- 12.09VfB Stuttgart2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Milan | 2 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 29 | Celta Vigo | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Viktoria Plzeň | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- MilanFerencvárospreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Real SociedadLyonpreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- RennesOlympiacospreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary6022181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary2825472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- Levski SofiaJagiellonia Białystokpreliminary4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →