K League 1 (South Korea), round 35 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Daejeon Hana Citizen — Incheon United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Daejeon Hana Citizen are clear favourites: 46% against 24% for the opponent, draw 30%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Daejeon Hana Citizen are 112 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Daejeon Hana Citizen — No. 3, 50 pts; Incheon United — No. 5, 49 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Daejeon Hana Citizen: unbeaten in 5; Incheon United: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Daejeon Hana Citizen 3 wins, Incheon United 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Daejeon Hana Citizen — Incheon United What is xG? | 1.4–1.0 | |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen not to lose | 76% | |
| Incheon United not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Daejeon Hana Citizen | Incheon United |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.17 | 0.49 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.58 | 0.88 |
| Shots | 13.3 | 10.0 |
| On target | 5.1 | 4.1 |
| Corners | 5.8 | 3.8 |
| Cards | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Possession, % | 56 | 51 |
Form
- 31.10away · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC0:0
- 24.10away · Gimcheon Sangmu2:1
- 18.10Gwangju FC3:2
- 09.10Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC2:1
- 20.09away · Incheon United1:1
- 01.11away · FC Seoul1:0
- 24.10Jeju SK3:1
- 18.10away · Gangwon FC1:1
- 09.10Pohang Steelers3:0
- 27.09away · Gangwon FC0:0
Head to head
- 20.09.2026Incheon United — Daejeon Hana Citizen1:1
- 05.05.2026Daejeon Hana Citizen — Incheon United0:0
- 18.03.2026Incheon United — Daejeon Hana Citizen1:3
- 10.11.2024Incheon United — Daejeon Hana Citizen1:2
- 17.08.2024Daejeon Hana Citizen — Incheon United2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Championship round | Ulsan HD FC | 34 | 16 | +6 | 54 |
| 3, Championship round | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 34 | 13 | +12 | 50 |
| 4, Championship round | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC | 34 | 12 | +10 | 49 |
| 5, Championship round | Incheon United | 34 | 13 | +9 | 49 |
| 6, Championship round | Gangwon FC | 34 | 11 | +9 | 48 |
K League 1 on the same day
- 4827251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- 363231XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
- 2732422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →