PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Accounts and Premium are not available in your country; every forecast is open. New forecasts every day — in our Telegram channel.

Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Tuesday, 3 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Deportivo Pereira — Tolima

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

1:3Came true
Deportivo Pereira21%
Draw29%
Tolima50%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, Tolima to win (50%), came true.

Tolima are clear favourites: 50% against 21% for the opponent, draw 29%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Tolima are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Tolima are 54 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • Deportivo Pereira: unbeaten in 5; Tolima: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Deportivo Pereira 1 win, Tolima 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Deportivo Pereira — Tolima What is xG?0.9–1.5
Deportivo Pereira not to lose50%
Tolima not to lose79%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes51%
Both teams to score: no49%
Total over 2.547%
Total under 2.553%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Deportivo Pereira
  • Deportivo Pereira goals
  • Tolima goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Match events

  1. 13′Luis Sánchez · Tolima0:1
  2. 16′Luis Sánchez · Tolima0:2
  3. 18′Ever Valencia · Tolima0:3
  4. 34′Sebastián Urrea · Deportivo Pereira
  5. 39′Luis Sánchez · Tolima
  6. 42′Walmer Pacheco · Deportivo Pereira
  7. 44′Juan Mera · Tolima
  8. 47′Jordy Monroy · penalty · Deportivo Pereira1:3
  9. 82′Adrián Parra · Tolima
Substitutions (10)
  1. 24′Luis Mosquera ↔ Miguel Palacios · Deportivo Pereira
  2. 30′Danilo Ortiz ↔ Santiago Aguilar · Deportivo Pereira
  3. 59′Victor Reyes ↔ Brayan Rovira · Tolima
  4. 59′Luis Sandoval ↔ Luis Sánchez · Tolima
  5. 79′Jan Ángulo ↔ Jherson Mosquera · Tolima
  6. 79′Kelvin Flórez ↔ Ever Valencia · Tolima
  7. 79′Tobías Bovone ↔ Ánderson Plata · Deportivo Pereira
  8. 80′Luis Moreno ↔ Jorge Bermúdez · Deportivo Pereira
  9. 80′Yúber Quiñones ↔ Marco Pérez · Deportivo Pereira
  10. 90′Sergio Aguayo ↔ Adrián Parra · Tolima

Match statistics

Deportivo PereiraTolima
  • 1.34Expected goals (xG)0.74
  • 54Possession, %46
  • 13Shots14
  • 4On target5
  • 1Big chances0
  • 7Corners2
  • 11Fouls9
  • 2Offsides2
  • 2Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Deportivo Pereira

  1. GKYimy Gómez5.4
  2. DFJordy Monroy7.0
  3. DFSebastián Urrea5.7
  4. DFSantiago Aguilar30′5.5
  5. DFFabio Delgado6.0
  6. MFWalmer Pacheco (C)6.5
  7. MFJorge Bermúdez80′7.3
  8. MFÁnderson Plata79′5.9
  9. MFMiguel Palacios24′5.6
  10. FWJhon Largacha6.5
  11. FWMarco Pérez80′6.2
Came on (5)
  1. MFAleksandr Lomakin10′6.1
  2. DFDanilo Ortiz60′6.3
  3. DFTobías Bovone11′6.0
  4. FWLuis Mosquera66′6.1
  5. FWYúber Quiñones10′5.8

Tolima

  1. GKMiguel Ortega7.1
  2. DFYordan Osorio7.4
  3. DFJherson Mosquera79′8.1
  4. DFJunior Hernández7.7
  5. DFJuan Mera6.9
  6. MFLuis Sánchez59′8.9
  7. MFHomer Martínez7.4
  8. MFBrayan Rovira (C)59′6.9
  9. FWJorge Hurtado7.9
  10. FWAdrián Parra89′7.8
  11. FWEver Valencia79′7.9
Came on (5)
  1. FWKelvin Flórez11′6.0
  2. DFJan Ángulo11′6.5
  3. FWSergio Aguayo1′
  4. FWLuis Sandoval31′6.8
  5. MFVictor Reyes31′6.1

Form

Deportivo Pereira

  • 31.10CD Jaguares1:0
  • 25.10away · Once Caldas1:1
  • 21.10Chicó FC2:0
  • 15.10away · Junior1:1
  • 10.10Deportivo Cali0:0

Tolima

  • 26.10Deportivo Pasto0:1
  • 18.10away · Águilas Doradas1:2
  • 12.10away · CD Jaguares2:3
  • 09.10away · Atlético Nacional0:0
  • 04.10Chicó FC0:0

Head to head

  • 19.04.2026Tolima — Deportivo Pereira2:0
  • 26.07.2025Tolima — Deportivo Pereira1:0
  • 14.02.2025Deportivo Pereira — Tolima0:0
  • 08.10.2024Deportivo Pereira — Tolima1:0
  • 24.03.2024Tolima — Deportivo Pereira2:1

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026 (Clausura)
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
9Once Caldas1766521–18+324
10Tolima1765621–20+123
11Cúcuta1663718–24-621
14Alianza FC1753917–29-1218
15Deportivo Pereira1738613–22-917
16Junior1737723–27-416

Season 2026 (Clausura)

Full table

Next matches

Colombian Primera A on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →