EFL Championship, round 14 · Tuesday, 3 November, MSK
Derby County — Norwich City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 3 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Derby County 38%, Norwich City 34%, draw 29%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Derby County — No. 23, 6 pts; Norwich City — No. 19, 9 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Derby County: winless in 5; Norwich City: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 4 meetings: Derby County 1 win, Norwich City 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Derby County — Norwich City What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| Derby County not to lose | 66% | |
| Norwich City not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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- Handicap Derby County
- Derby County goals
- Norwich City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Wrexham1:1
- 19.09away · Burnley1:1
- 12.09Birmingham City1:2
- 09.09West Bromwich Albion0:1
- 05.09away · West Ham United0:3
- 10.10away · Swansea City1:2
- 20.09Bolton Wanderers3:4
- 17.09away · Manchester City0:5
- 12.09away · Middlesbrough3:4
- 09.09Birmingham City2:1
Head to head
- 21.04.2026Norwich City — Derby County2:1
- 21.10.2025Derby County — Norwich City1:0
- 08.02.2025Norwich City — Derby County1:1
- 28.09.2024Derby County — Norwich City2:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Cardiff City | 10 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 9 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 9 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 24, Relegation | Preston North End | 10 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
Championship on the same day
- Blackburn RoversStoke Citypreliminary5027221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- PortsmouthSwansea Citypreliminary3829341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- Preston North EndSheffield Unitedpreliminary3228402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Queens Park RangersBurnleypreliminary3829331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- WatfordLincoln Citypreliminary333037XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
- Charlton AthleticBolton Wandererspreliminary372934XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
- Birmingham CityMillwallpreliminary4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- West Bromwich AlbionSouthamptonpreliminary3429372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →