Segunda Division, round 14 · Sunday, 15 November, 20:30 (UTC+3)

Eibar — Cádiz

Model prediction for 15 November

Eibar59%

Draw25%

Cádiz16%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Eibar are clear favourites: 59% against 16% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

By the strength ratings Eibar are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Eibar are 274 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Eibar — No. 3, 23 pts; Cádiz — No. 19, 10 pts. A gap of 13 pts.
Eibar: winless in 4.
Last 5 meetings: Eibar 2 wins, Cádiz 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Eibar — Cádiz What is xG?		1.7–0.8
Eibar not to lose		84%
Cádiz not to lose		41%
No draw		75%
Both teams to score: yes		49%
Both teams to score: no		51%
Total over 2.5		48%
Total under 2.5		52%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Eibar
Eibar goals
Cádiz goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Eibar	Cádiz
Goals scored per match	1.9	1.3
Goals conceded per match	1.1	1.4
xG per match	1.48	1.09
Opponents’ xG	1.47	1.47
Shots	12.7	10.9
On target	5.2	3.2
Corners	2.9	4.3
Cards	2.3	3.1
Possession, %	43	47

Averages per match: Eibar — the last 10, Cádiz — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Eibar

31.10Almería1:1
24.10away · Córdoba0:2
17.10Mallorca1:1
12.10away · Real Oviedo1:3
03.10away · Albacete3:1

Cádiz

02.11away · Mallorca1:2
29.10away · Xerez3:1
25.10AD Ceuta FC3:1
18.10away · Granada0:2
11.10Sporting Gijón0:1

Head to head

01.03.2026Eibar — Cádiz3:1
13.09.2025Cádiz — Eibar1:0
31.03.2025Cádiz — Eibar0:0
23.10.2024Eibar — Cádiz1:0
06.03.2021Cádiz — Eibar1:0

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Promotion	Almería	12	8	2	2	23–10	+13	26
3, Promotion play-offs	Eibar	12	7	2	3	21–14	+7	23
4, Promotion play-offs	Granada	12	7	2	3	20–14	+6	23
18	Real Sociedad B	12	3	2	7	15–22	-7	11
19, Relegation	Cádiz	12	2	4	6	15–16	-1	10
20, Relegation	FC Andorra	11	3	1	7	15–20	-5	10

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

16:00
TenerifeAD Ceuta FCpreliminary
502821
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
18:15
GranadaLas Palmaspreliminary
552619
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
20:30
EldenseSabadellpreliminary
383131
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →