Segunda Division, round 14 · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3)
Tenerife — AD Ceuta FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Tenerife are clear favourites: 50% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Tenerife are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Tenerife are 171 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Tenerife — No. 14, 14 pts; AD Ceuta FC — No. 22, 5 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
- Tenerife: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tenerife — AD Ceuta FC What is xG? | 1.4–0.9 | |
| Tenerife not to lose | 79% | |
| AD Ceuta FC not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Tenerife
- Tenerife goals
- AD Ceuta FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Tenerife | AD Ceuta FC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| xG per match | 0.79 | 1.46 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.21 | 1.68 |
| Shots | 10.5 | 16.8 |
| On target | 2.9 | 4.5 |
| Corners | 4.4 | 6.9 |
| Cards | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| Possession, % | 42 | 53 |
Form
- 25.10away · Sabadell1:1
- 19.10away · Celta Fortuna1:1
- 12.10Girona1:1
- 05.10away · Córdoba2:3
- 26.09Cádiz1:1
- 01.11Sporting Gijón0:2
- 29.10away · Poblense2:1
- 25.10away · Cádiz1:3
- 18.10Real Oviedo1:2
- 10.10Sabadell1:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Real Valladolid | 12 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 14 | Tenerife | 11 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 15 | Eldense | 12 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 21, Relegation | Albacete | 12 | 2 | -13 | 7 |
| 22, Relegation | AD Ceuta FC | 12 | 1 | -17 | 5 |
Segunda Division on the same day
- GranadaLas Palmaspreliminary5526191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- EibarCádizpreliminary5925161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- EldenseSabadellpreliminary3831311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →