Segunda Division, round 14 · Sunday, 15 November, 20:30 (UTC+3)

Eldense — Sabadell

Model prediction for 15 November

Eldense38%

Draw31%

Sabadell31%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Eldense are slightly stronger: 38% against 31%, draw 31%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

By the strength ratings Sabadell are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
In recent matches the betting market rated Eldense higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Eldense — No. 15, 14 pts; Sabadell — No. 10, 17 pts. A gap of 3 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Eldense — Sabadell What is xG?		1.2–1.1
Eldense not to lose		69%
Sabadell not to lose		62%
No draw		69%
Both teams to score: yes		49%
Both teams to score: no		51%
Total over 2.5		41%
Total under 2.5		59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Eldense
Eldense goals
Sabadell goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Eldense	Sabadell
Goals scored per match	1.1	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.2	1.1
xG per match	1.46	1.46
Opponents’ xG	1.17	1.09
Shots	13.4	15.3
On target	4.4	4.4
Corners	5.3	5.2
Cards	2.3	2.8
Possession, %	52	47

Averages per match: Eldense — the last 10, Sabadell — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Eldense

01.11Granada0:2
29.10away · Atlético Baleares1:0
25.10away · Albacete0:2
18.10away · Real Valladolid3:2
10.10Córdoba2:1

Sabadell

31.10away · Albacete1:2
25.10Tenerife1:1
18.10away · Burgos CF0:1
10.10away · AD Ceuta FC2:1
04.10FC Andorra0:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9	Real Oviedo	12	5	3	4	17–15	+2	18
10	Sabadell	12	4	5	3	12–11	+1	17
11	Las Palmas	12	5	2	5	17–21	-4	17
14	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	13–15	-2	14
15	Eldense	12	4	2	6	13–17	-4	14
16	Celta Fortuna	12	3	4	5	18–23	-5	13

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

16:00
TenerifeAD Ceuta FCpreliminary
502821
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
18:15
GranadaLas Palmaspreliminary
552619
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
20:30
EibarCádizpreliminary
592516
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →