Segunda Division, round 14 · Sunday, 15 November, 18:15 (UTC+3)

Granada — Las Palmas

Model prediction for 15 November

Granada55%

Draw26%

Las Palmas19%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Granada are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

By the strength ratings Granada are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Granada are 87 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Granada — No. 4, 23 pts; Las Palmas — No. 11, 17 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Granada: 5 wins in a row; Las Palmas: 3 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Granada 1 win, Las Palmas 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Granada — Las Palmas What is xG?		1.6–0.9
Granada not to lose		81%
Las Palmas not to lose		45%
No draw		74%
Both teams to score: yes		52%
Both teams to score: no		48%
Total over 2.5		50%
Total under 2.5		50%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Granada
Granada goals
Las Palmas goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Granada	Las Palmas
Goals scored per match	1.8	1.3
Goals conceded per match	1.4	2.0
xG per match	1.73	0.83
Opponents’ xG	1.29	1.66
Shots	14.9	9.6
On target	4.3	3.5
Corners	4.6	4.2
Cards	1.8	3.3
Possession, %	50	50

Averages per match: Granada — the last 10, Las Palmas — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Granada

01.11away · Eldense2:0
29.10away · Cieza3:0
23.10Real Valladolid2:1
18.10Cádiz2:0
12.10away · Burgos CF1:0

Las Palmas

02.11away · Real Oviedo3:2
27.10away · RSD Alcalá3:1
24.10Real Sociedad B1:0
17.10Castellón0:3
11.10away · Mallorca1:3

Head to head

02.04.2026Las Palmas — Granada2:0
10.10.2025Granada — Las Palmas0:0
03.02.2024Granada — Las Palmas1:1
24.09.2023Las Palmas — Granada1:0
15.04.2023Granada — Las Palmas2:1

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Promotion play-offs	Eibar	12	7	2	3	21–14	+7	23
4, Promotion play-offs	Granada	12	7	2	3	20–14	+6	23
5, Promotion play-offs	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	15–7	+8	22
10	Sabadell	12	4	5	3	12–11	+1	17
11	Las Palmas	12	5	2	5	17–21	-4	17
12	Córdoba	12	5	1	6	19–22	-3	16

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

16:00
TenerifeAD Ceuta FCpreliminary
502821
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
20:30
EibarCádizpreliminary
592516
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
20:30
EldenseSabadellpreliminary
383131
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →