Segunda Division, round 8 · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat
Eldense — Real Oviedo
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Real Oviedo to win (43%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 43% fails in about 57 matches out of 100 on average.
Real Oviedo are slightly stronger: 43% against 27%, draw 30%.
The model expects few goals: 2.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 33%, both teams to score — 40%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Real Oviedo are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Eldense — Real Oviedo What is xG? | 0.9–1.2 | |
| Eldense not to lose | 57% | |
| Real Oviedo not to lose | 73% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 33% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 67% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Eldense
- Eldense goals
- Real Oviedo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 27.09away · Burgos CF0:1
- 19.09Eibar1:2
- 13.09away · Sporting Gijón1:0
- 05.09Mallorca0:0
- 29.08away · Leganés0:1
- 27.09Sporting Gijón2:0
- 20.09away · Sabadell1:3
- 13.09away · Real Valladolid3:0
- 06.09Burgos CF0:0
- 29.08away · Albacete1:0
Head to head
- 10.02.2025Real Oviedo — Eldense0:0
- 21.09.2024Eldense — Real Oviedo1:1
- 04.02.2024Real Oviedo — Eldense1:1
- 01.10.2023Eldense — Real Oviedo1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Burgos CF | 9 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Real Oviedo | 9 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Granada | 9 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 13 | Celta Fortuna | 9 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Las Palmas | 9 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
Next matches
- EldenseCórdoba10 October · Segunda Division343036XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:2.2.8
- Real OviedoEibar12 October · Segunda Division4428281The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →