Swedish Allsvenskan, round 23 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Borås Arena
Elfsborg — Halmstads BK
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
4:0Came true
In short
Final score 4:0: the model's most likely outcome, Elfsborg to win (63%), came true.
Elfsborg are clear favourites: 63% against 14% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Elfsborg are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Elfsborg — Halmstads BK What is xG? | 2.0–0.9 | |
| Elfsborg not to lose | 86% | |
| Halmstads BK not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Djurgården2:1
- 13.09Kalmar FF1:0
- 06.09away · Brommapojkarna1:2
- 29.08Degerfors2:0
- 23.08away · IFK Göteborg1:1
- 20.09AIK2:1
- 12.09away · IFK Göteborg1:2
- 05.09away · Degerfors0:2
- 29.08Kalmar FF1:0
- 22.08away · Örgryte1:1
Head to head
- 16.05.2026Halmstads BK — Elfsborg1:1
- 24.08.2025Elfsborg — Halmstads BK1:2
- 25.05.2025Halmstads BK — Elfsborg1:4
- 15.09.2024Halmstads BK — Elfsborg0:1
- 24.05.2024Elfsborg — Halmstads BK2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Hammarby | 23 | 13 | +28 | 43 |
| 4 | Elfsborg | 23 | 11 | +13 | 40 |
| 5 | Häcken | 23 | 10 | +12 | 39 |
| 15, Relegation | Örgryte | 23 | 3 | -27 | 15 |
| 16, Relegation | Halmstads BK | 23 | 3 | -28 | 14 |
Next matches
- SiriusElfsborg18 October · Allsvenskan4926251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Halmstads BKHammarby18 October · Allsvenskan1018732The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:43.4
Allsvenskan on the same day
- 5127221The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →