Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 11 · Sunday, 8 November, 18:30 (UTC+3)

Estoril — Marítimo

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Model prediction for 8 November

Estoril43%

Draw29%

Marítimo28%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Estoril are slightly stronger: 43% against 28%, draw 29%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

By the strength ratings Estoril are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Estoril are 86 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Estoril — No. 18, 2 pts; Marítimo — No. 14, 8 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Estoril: winless in 5.
Last 4 meetings: Estoril 2 wins, Marítimo 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Estoril — Marítimo What is xG?		1.5–1.2
Estoril not to lose		72%
Marítimo not to lose		57%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		57%
Both teams to score: no		43%
Total over 2.5		52%
Total under 2.5		48%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Estoril
Estoril goals
Marítimo goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Estoril	Marítimo
Goals scored per match	0.5	0.9
Goals conceded per match	1.9	2.1
xG per match	1.00	1.00
Opponents’ xG	1.69	1.39
Shots	13.7	10.7
On target	4.7	3.4
Corners	4.5	3.3
Cards	2.0	2.0
Possession, %	46	45

Averages per match: Estoril — the last 10, Marítimo — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Estoril

31.10away · FC Porto0:4
25.10Moreirense1:3
18.10away · Salgueiros1:1
10.10away · Académico Viseu1:2
20.09Casa Pia AC1:2

Marítimo

01.11Santa Clara0:2
23.10away · Vitória de Guimarães0:5
18.10away · Alcochetense2:1
10.10FC Porto1:2
19.09away · Gil Vicente1:1

Head to head

27.05.2023Estoril — Marítimo3:1
22.01.2023Marítimo — Estoril1:0
05.02.2022Marítimo — Estoril0:0
27.08.2021Estoril — Marítimo2:1

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
13	Vitória de Guimarães	10	2	3	5	10–10	0	9
14	Marítimo	10	2	2	6	9–21	-12	8
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	10–19	-9	7
17, Relegation	Casa Pia AC	10	2	1	7	5–19	-14	7
18, Relegation	Estoril	10	0	2	8	5–19	-14	2

Season 2026/27

Full table

Primeira Liga on the same day

18:30
Santa ClaraGil Vicente
403228
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
21:00
Vitória de GuimarãesFC Porto
172558
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
23:30
Estrela da AmadoraBenfica
71678
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
23:30
Rio AveBraga
152461
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →