Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 11 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Santa Clara — Gil Vicente
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Santa Clara are slightly stronger: 40% against 28%, draw 32%.
The model expects few goals: 2.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Santa Clara are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Santa Clara are 133 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Santa Clara — No. 4, 21 pts; Gil Vicente — No. 7, 15 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Santa Clara 4 wins, Gil Vicente 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Santa Clara — Gil Vicente What is xG? | 1.2–1.0 | |
| Santa Clara not to lose | 72% | |
| Gil Vicente not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Santa Clara | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| xG per match | 1.41 | 1.21 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.98 | 0.97 |
| Shots | 13.0 | 12.7 |
| On target | 3.9 | 3.3 |
| Corners | 3.7 | 3.1 |
| Cards | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 51 |
Form
- 01.11away · Marítimo2:0
- 26.10Benfica1:2
- 18.10away · Mafra2:3
- 10.10away · Casa Pia AC1:0
- 20.09Braga0:0
- 02.11Vitória de Guimarães0:0
- 24.10FC Porto0:1
- 19.10away · Braga2:1
- 14.10away · Santarém3:2
- 09.10away · Moreirense1:0
Head to head
- 21.03.2026Santa Clara — Gil Vicente1:0
- 03.11.2025Gil Vicente — Santa Clara1:0
- 15.03.2025Gil Vicente — Santa Clara0:1
- 25.10.2024Santa Clara — Gil Vicente2:1
- 06.05.2023Santa Clara — Gil Vicente3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Champions League qualifying | Sporting CP | 10 | 6 | +12 | 21 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Santa Clara | 10 | 6 | +9 | 21 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Arouca | 10 | 6 | +6 | 20 |
| 6 | Académico Viseu | 10 | 6 | +3 | 20 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 10 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 | Braga | 10 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- 4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 1725582The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- 716782The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- 1524612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →