Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 11 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Vitória de Guimarães — FC Porto
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
FC Porto are clear favourites: 58% against 17% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Porto are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- FC Porto are 270 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Vitória de Guimarães — No. 13, 9 pts; FC Porto — No. 1, 30 pts. A gap of 21 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Vitória de Guimarães 1 win, FC Porto 3, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Vitória de Guimarães 6, FC Porto 8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vitória de Guimarães — FC Porto What is xG? | 0.9–1.7 | |
| Vitória de Guimarães not to lose | 42% | |
| FC Porto not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Vitória de Guimarães
- Vitória de Guimarães goals
- FC Porto goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Vitória de Guimarães | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| xG per match | 1.53 | 1.79 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.94 | 1.11 |
| Shots | 16.9 | 15.0 |
| On target | 4.3 | 5.7 |
| Corners | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Cards | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Possession, % | 54 | 52 |
Form
- 02.11away · Gil Vicente0:0
- 23.10Marítimo5:0
- 17.10away · ACDR Lamelas1:0
- 11.10away · Benfica0:2
- 20.09Moreirense1:1
- 31.10Estoril4:0
- 24.10away · Gil Vicente1:0
- 20.10PSV Eindhoven0:1
- 14.10away · Real Betis2:3
- 10.10away · Marítimo2:1
Head to head
- 18.01.2026Vitória de Guimarães — FC Porto0:1
- 11.08.2025FC Porto — Vitória de Guimarães3:0
- 24.02.2025FC Porto — Vitória de Guimarães1:1
- 21.09.2024Vitória de Guimarães — FC Porto0:3
- 07.04.2024FC Porto — Vitória de Guimarães1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | FC Porto | 10 | 10 | +21 | 30 |
| 2, Champions League | Benfica | 10 | 8 | +19 | 25 |
| 12 | Estrela da Amadora | 10 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória de Guimarães | 10 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Marítimo | 10 | 2 | -12 | 8 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- 4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 4032281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- 716782The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- 1524612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →