Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 11 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Rio Ave — Braga
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Braga are clear favourites: 61% against 15% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Braga are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- Braga are 110 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Rio Ave — No. 16, 7 pts; Braga — No. 8, 14 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Rio Ave 1 win, Braga 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rio Ave — Braga What is xG? | 0.9–1.8 | |
| Rio Ave not to lose | 39% | |
| Braga not to lose | 85% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Rio Ave | Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 0.72 | 1.39 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.73 | 0.88 |
| Shots | 8.0 | 14.9 |
| On target | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Corners | 4.0 | 5.1 |
| Cards | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 60 |
Form
- 01.11away · Académico Viseu1:2
- 25.10Famalicão0:4
- 17.10away · Louletano1:0
- 11.10Nacional3:2
- 19.09away · Alverca0:1
- 01.11Famalicão3:0
- 25.10away · Nacional0:1
- 22.10Gent2:0
- 19.10Gil Vicente1:2
- 15.10away · FC København0:3
Head to head
- 08.02.2026Braga — Rio Ave3:0
- 31.08.2025Rio Ave — Braga2:2
- 02.03.2025Rio Ave — Braga2:1
- 29.09.2024Braga — Rio Ave4:0
- 09.03.2024Rio Ave — Braga0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 10 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 | Braga | 10 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | Nacional | 10 | 2 | -9 | 7 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Rio Ave | 10 | 2 | -14 | 7 |
| 17, Relegation | Casa Pia AC | 10 | 2 | -14 | 7 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- 4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 4032281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- 1725582The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- 716782The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →