Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 11 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Estrela da Amadora — Benfica
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Benfica are clear favourites: 78% against 7% for the opponent, draw 16%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Benfica are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
- Benfica are 315 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Estrela da Amadora — No. 12, 10 pts; Benfica — No. 2, 25 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
- Benfica: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Estrela da Amadora 0 wins, Benfica 5.
- Days of rest before the match: Estrela da Amadora 8, Benfica 6.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Estrela da Amadora — Benfica What is xG? | 0.8–2.4 | |
| Estrela da Amadora not to lose | 22% | |
| Benfica not to lose | 93% | |
| No draw | 84% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Estrela da Amadora
- Estrela da Amadora goals
- Benfica goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Estrela da Amadora | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| xG per match | 1.28 | 2.14 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.37 | 0.94 |
| Shots | 13.2 | 17.3 |
| On target | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| Corners | 4.4 | 6.5 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| Possession, % | 52 | 60 |
Form
- 31.10away · Moreirense1:2
- 24.10Casa Pia AC0:2
- 17.10away · Fazendense2:1
- 11.10away · Arouca0:1
- 20.09Académico Viseu0:2
- 02.11Alverca1:0
- 26.10away · Santa Clara2:1
- 22.10away · Omonia Nicosia4:1
- 15.10Celtic4:1
- 11.10Vitória de Guimarães2:0
Head to head
- 25.01.2026Benfica — Estrela da Amadora4:0
- 16.08.2025Estrela da Amadora — Benfica0:1
- 02.02.2025Estrela da Amadora — Benfica2:3
- 23.11.2024Benfica — Estrela da Amadora7:0
- 24.08.2024Benfica — Estrela da Amadora1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | FC Porto | 10 | 10 | +21 | 30 |
| 2, Champions League | Benfica | 10 | 8 | +19 | 25 |
| 3, Champions League qualifying | Sporting CP | 10 | 6 | +12 | 21 |
| 11 | Famalicão | 10 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela da Amadora | 10 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória de Guimarães | 10 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- 4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 4032281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- 1725582The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- 1524612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →