Belarusian Premier League · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Centralnyj Stadion
FC Gomel — ML Vitebsk
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1:5Came true
In short
Final score 1:5: the model's most likely outcome, ML Vitebsk to win (45%), came true.
ML Vitebsk are slightly stronger: 45% against 28%, draw 27%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings ML Vitebsk are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Gomel — ML Vitebsk What is xG? | 0.9–1.3 | |
| FC Gomel not to lose | 55% | |
| ML Vitebsk not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 39% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 61% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Gomel
- FC Gomel goals
- ML Vitebsk goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 20.09away · Baranovici2:0
- 13.09away · Isloch1:2
- 05.09away · Zhodino2:1
- 28.08Belshina1:0
- 22.08away · Slavia Mozyr0:0
- 18.09Arsenal Dzerzhinsk5:1
- 13.09away · Dnepr Mogilev1:1
- 06.09Din. Minsk0:0
- 02.09Belshina1:1
- 29.08away · Dynamo Brest3:1
Head to head
- 22.05.2026ML Vitebsk — FC Gomel0:0
- 23.11.2025ML Vitebsk — FC Gomel5:0
- 28.06.2025FC Gomel — ML Vitebsk0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | ML Vitebsk | 22 | 13 | +29 | 47 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Din. Minsk | 22 | 14 | +22 | 46 |
| 5 | Neman | 23 | 12 | +9 | 40 |
| 6 | FC Gomel | 24 | 11 | +11 | 39 |
| 7 | Vitebsk | 24 | 10 | +7 | 37 |
Next matches
- ML VitebskZhodino15 October · Belarusian Premier League6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- Dynamo BrestFC Gomel17 October · Belarusian Premier League4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
Belarusian Premier League on the same day
- 2727452The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.1
- 1423632The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 0:3.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →