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Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 13 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

FC Groningen — SC Heerenveen

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Model prediction for 21 November

FC Groningen40%
Draw27%
SC Heerenveen33%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

FC Groningen are slightly stronger: 40% against 33%, draw 27%.

3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 69%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings FC Groningen are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Facts

  • League table: FC Groningen — No. 8, 15 pts; SC Heerenveen — No. 7, 18 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • SC Heerenveen: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 4 meetings: FC Groningen 3 wins, SC Heerenveen 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: FC Groningen — SC Heerenveen What is xG?1.8–1.6
FC Groningen not to lose67%
SC Heerenveen not to lose60%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes69%
Both teams to score: no31%
Total over 2.566%
Total under 2.534%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap FC Groningen
  • FC Groningen goals
  • SC Heerenveen goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatFC GroningenSC Heerenveen
Goals scored per match2.41.8
Goals conceded per match2.31.3
xG per match1.811.66
Opponents’ xG2.161.48
Shots14.815.3
On target6.05.6
Corners4.34.9
Cards1.31.0
Possession, %4952

Averages per match: FC Groningen — the last 10, SC Heerenveen — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

FC Groningen

  • 01.11Sparta Rotterdam2:3
  • 25.10away · NEC Nijmegen2:2
  • 18.10Ajax2:5
  • 11.10away · Excelsior5:1
  • 18.09PEC Zwolle3:0

SC Heerenveen

  • 31.10NEC Nijmegen1:0
  • 24.10away · ADO Den Haag3:2
  • 16.10Excelsior4:0
  • 09.10away · PSV Eindhoven0:2
  • 19.09away · Sparta Rotterdam4:0

Head to head

  • 18.01.2026SC Heerenveen — FC Groningen0:2
  • 16.08.2025FC Groningen — SC Heerenveen2:1
  • 25.01.2025FC Groningen — SC Heerenveen1:0
  • 22.09.2024SC Heerenveen — FC Groningen2:1

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
6Fortuna Sittard1154218–18019
7SC Heerenveen1153319–13+618
8FC Groningen1143426–24+215
9Cambuur1143423–22+115

Season 2026/27

Full table

Eredivisie on the same day

  • NEC NijmegenPSV Eindhovenpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.7
  • FeyenoordExcelsiorpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.8
  • FC UtrechtCambuurpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
  • TelstarPEC Zwollepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →