Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 13 · Saturday, 21 November, 23:00 (UTC+3)

Telstar — PEC Zwolle

Model prediction for 21 November

Telstar46%

Draw26%

PEC Zwolle28%

Model estimate at 08:25 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Telstar are slightly stronger: 46% against 28%, draw 26%.

3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 66%.

Why

By the strength ratings Telstar are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Telstar are 108 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Telstar — No. 16, 9 pts; PEC Zwolle — No. 14, 11 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Last 2 meetings: Telstar 0 wins, PEC Zwolle 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Telstar — PEC Zwolle What is xG?		1.9–1.4
Telstar not to lose		72%
PEC Zwolle not to lose		54%
No draw		74%
Both teams to score: yes		66%
Both teams to score: no		34%
Total over 2.5		63%
Total under 2.5		37%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Telstar
Telstar goals
PEC Zwolle goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Telstar	PEC Zwolle
Goals scored per match	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded per match	2.2	2.1
xG per match	1.37	1.14
Opponents’ xG	2.07	1.85
Shots	12.7	13.4
On target	3.5	4.7
Corners	4.5	4.7
Cards	1.3	1.5
Possession, %	47	41

Averages per match: Telstar — the last 10, PEC Zwolle — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Telstar

01.11FC Utrecht4:2
23.10away · Go Ahead Eagles2:3
17.10Feyenoord3:4
11.10ADO Den Haag2:2
20.09away · AZ Alkmaar0:1

PEC Zwolle

01.11ADO Den Haag1:0
24.10away · FC Utrecht1:1
18.10Go Ahead Eagles4:1
11.10Cambuur0:1
18.09away · FC Groningen0:3

Head to head

31.01.2026PEC Zwolle — Telstar4:1
15.08.2025Telstar — PEC Zwolle0:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
13	NEC Nijmegen	11	2	5	4	17–19	-2	11
14	PEC Zwolle	11	3	2	6	12–23	-11	11
15	Excelsior	11	3	2	6	16–28	-12	11
16, Relegation play-off	Telstar	11	2	3	6	16–23	-7	9
17, Relegation	ADO Den Haag	11	1	3	7	13–24	-11	6

Season 2026/27

Full table

Eredivisie on the same day

18:30
NEC NijmegenPSV Eindhovenpreliminary
182458
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.7
20:45
FeyenoordExcelsiorpreliminary
86104
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.8
20:45
FC UtrechtCambuurpreliminary
522622
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
23:00
FC GroningenSC Heerenveenpreliminary
402733
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →