Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 13 · Saturday, 21 November, 20:45 (UTC+3)

Feyenoord — Excelsior

Model prediction for 21 November

Feyenoord86%

Draw10%

Excelsior4%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Feyenoord are clear favourites: 86% against 4% for the opponent, draw 10%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.

Over 2.5 goals — 71%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

By the strength ratings Feyenoord are about 1.6 goals per match stronger.
Feyenoord are 359 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Feyenoord — No. 1, 25 pts; Excelsior — No. 15, 11 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
Feyenoord: winless in 4; Excelsior: 4 defeats in a row.
Last 4 meetings: Feyenoord 4 wins, Excelsior 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Feyenoord — Excelsior What is xG?		3.0–0.8
Feyenoord not to lose		96%
Excelsior not to lose		14%
No draw		90%
Both teams to score: yes		53%
Both teams to score: no		47%
Total over 2.5		71%
Total under 2.5		29%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Feyenoord
Feyenoord goals
Excelsior goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Feyenoord	Excelsior
Goals scored per match	2.4	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.6	2.8
xG per match	1.91	0.96
Opponents’ xG	1.23	2.18
Shots	15.4	8.9
On target	6.5	2.9
Corners	5.2	3.0
Cards	1.6	1.5
Possession, %	51	41

Averages per match: Feyenoord — the last 10, Excelsior — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Feyenoord

03.11Inter0:3
31.10Fortuna Sittard1:1
25.10away · PSV Eindhoven1:1
21.10away · Real Betis0:1
17.10away · Telstar4:3

Excelsior

01.11FC Twente0:9
25.10away · Fortuna Sittard0:1
16.10away · SC Heerenveen0:4
11.10FC Groningen1:5
19.09away · Ajax2:2

Head to head

15.03.2026Feyenoord — Excelsior2:1
16.08.2025Excelsior — Feyenoord1:2
19.05.2024Feyenoord — Excelsior4:0
25.11.2023Excelsior — Feyenoord2:4

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Champions League	Feyenoord	11	7	4	0	33–12	+21	25
2, Champions League qualifying	Ajax	11	7	3	1	30–13	+17	24
14	PEC Zwolle	11	3	2	6	12–23	-11	11
15	Excelsior	11	3	2	6	16–28	-12	11
16, Relegation play-off	Telstar	11	2	3	6	16–23	-7	9

Season 2026/27

Full table

Eredivisie on the same day

18:30
NEC NijmegenPSV Eindhovenpreliminary
182458
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.7
20:45
FC UtrechtCambuurpreliminary
522622
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
23:00
TelstarPEC Zwollepreliminary
462628
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
23:00
FC GroningenSC Heerenveenpreliminary
402733
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 86% will not happen in roughly 14 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →