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Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 13 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

NEC Nijmegen — PSV Eindhoven

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Model prediction for 21 November

NEC Nijmegen18%
Draw24%
PSV Eindhoven58%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

PSV Eindhoven are clear favourites: 58% against 18% for the opponent, draw 24%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.

Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 70%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings PSV Eindhoven are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
  • PSV Eindhoven are 150 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: NEC Nijmegen — No. 13, 11 pts; PSV Eindhoven — No. 3, 23 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: NEC Nijmegen 2 wins, PSV Eindhoven 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen — PSV Eindhoven What is xG?1.4–2.3
NEC Nijmegen not to lose42%
PSV Eindhoven not to lose82%
No draw76%
Both teams to score: yes70%
Both teams to score: no30%
Total over 2.570%
Total under 2.530%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap NEC Nijmegen
  • NEC Nijmegen goals
  • PSV Eindhoven goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatNEC NijmegenPSV Eindhoven
Goals scored per match1.32.2
Goals conceded per match2.01.0
xG per match1.481.74
Opponents’ xG2.111.57
Shots15.716.0
On target4.65.0
Corners5.65.6
Cards1.42.3
Possession, %5658

Averages per match: NEC Nijmegen — the last 10, PSV Eindhoven — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

NEC Nijmegen

  • 31.10away · SC Heerenveen0:1
  • 25.10FC Groningen2:2
  • 22.10away · Dinamo Zagreb4:2
  • 18.10Fortuna Sittard2:2
  • 15.10Levski Sofia1:1

PSV Eindhoven

  • 31.10Willem II7:0
  • 25.10Feyenoord1:1
  • 20.10away · FC Porto1:0
  • 17.10away · ADO Den Haag1:2
  • 13.10away · RB Leipzig0:1

Head to head

  • 14.03.2026PSV Eindhoven — NEC Nijmegen2:3
  • 13.09.2025NEC Nijmegen — PSV Eindhoven3:5
  • 01.02.2025NEC Nijmegen — PSV Eindhoven3:3
  • 14.09.2024PSV Eindhoven — NEC Nijmegen2:0
  • 30.03.2024NEC Nijmegen — PSV Eindhoven3:1

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2, Champions League qualifyingAjax1173130–13+1724
3, Europa League or Conference LeaguePSV Eindhoven1172235–13+2223
4FC Twente1172228–10+1823
12FC Utrecht1133519–31-1212
13NEC Nijmegen1125417–19-211
14PEC Zwolle1132612–23-1111

Season 2026/27

Full table

Eredivisie on the same day

  • FeyenoordExcelsiorpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.8
  • FC UtrechtCambuurpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
  • TelstarPEC Zwollepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
  • FC GroningenSC Heerenveenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →