UEFA Champions League, round 4 · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3)
FC Porto — Napoli
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 4 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Porto are clear favourites: 52% against 23% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Porto are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- FC Porto are 134 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: FC Porto — No. 30, 0 pts; Napoli — No. 32, 0 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Porto — Napoli What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| FC Porto not to lose | 77% | |
| Napoli not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Porto
- FC Porto goals
- Napoli goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 14.10away · Real Betis2:3
- 10.10away · Marítimo2:1
- 20.09Benfica3:1
- 12.09away · Casa Pia AC4:1
- 08.09Manchester City0:2
- 13.10away · Villarreal1:3
- 10.10Frosinone3:0
- 20.09away · Fiorentina1:1
- 13.09Bologna1:0
- 09.09Arsenal0:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Inter | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | FC Porto | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Slavia Prague | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 32 | Napoli | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | LASK | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
Champions League on the same day
- FenerbahçeLiverpoolpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- AEK AthensReal Madridpreliminary1923592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- Borussia DortmundReal Betispreliminary6321161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- PSV EindhovenClub Bruggepreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- RB LeipzigManchester Citypreliminary2425512The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- Slavia PragueArsenalpreliminary916752The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.3
- LensComopreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- VikingSabah FKpreliminary7018121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →