Swedish Allsvenskan, round 23 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Gamla Ullevi
GAIS — Sirius
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:1Missed
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, GAIS to win (40%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 40% fails in about 60 matches out of 100 on average.
GAIS are slightly stronger: 40% against 32%, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: GAIS — Sirius What is xG? | 1.5–1.3 | |
| GAIS not to lose | 68% | |
| Sirius not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Mjällby3:0
- 14.09away · Djurgården0:2
- 05.09Häcken0:0
- 31.08Brommapojkarna4:0
- 23.08away · Hammarby0:2
- 19.09away · Örgryte2:1
- 14.09Degerfors2:0
- 05.09away · Västerås SK1:0
- 31.08Malmö FF0:1
- 21.08Häcken0:3
Head to head
- 24.05.2026Sirius — GAIS2:1
- 14.09.2025Sirius — GAIS3:0
- 24.05.2025GAIS — Sirius2:1
- 10.11.2024GAIS — Sirius2:1
- 13.07.2024Sirius — GAIS3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Sirius | 23 | 17 | +25 | 54 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Djurgården | 23 | 14 | +27 | 44 |
| 9 | AIK | 23 | 9 | -4 | 33 |
| 10 | GAIS | 23 | 8 | +7 | 30 |
| 11 | Brommapojkarna | 23 | 8 | -5 | 30 |
Next matches
- SiriusElfsborg18 October · Allsvenskan4926251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- ÖrgryteGAIS18 October · Allsvenskan1925562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0
Allsvenskan on the same day
- 4428281The most likely outcome did not happen: 15:6Final score 5:6. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 4828241The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →