Serie A, round 11 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Genoa — Milan
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Milan are clear favourites: 54% against 18% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Milan are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Milan are 77 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Genoa — No. 11, 13 pts; Milan — No. 5, 21 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Genoa: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Genoa 0 wins, Milan 2, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Genoa — Milan What is xG? | 1.0–1.6 | |
| Genoa not to lose | 46% | |
| Milan not to lose | 82% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Genoa | Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.02 | 1.76 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.26 | 1.36 |
| Shots | 12.8 | 11.7 |
| On target | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| Corners | 4.7 | 3.9 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 45 | 56 |
Form
- 31.10Inter3:1
- 28.10Bologna2:4
- 25.10away · Udinese2:0
- 22.10away · AFC Bournemouth0:3
- 18.10Atalanta3:2
Head to head
- 17.05.2026Genoa — Milan1:2
- 08.01.2026Milan — Genoa1:1
- 05.05.2025Genoa — Milan1:2
- 15.12.2024Milan — Genoa0:0
- 05.05.2024Milan — Genoa3:3
Table
Serie A on the same day
- 4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 2526492The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- 5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- 3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →