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Serie A, round 11 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)

Napoli — Lazio

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Model prediction for 8 November

Napoli43%
Draw29%
Lazio28%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Napoli are slightly stronger: 43% against 28%, draw 29%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 59%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Napoli are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.

Facts

  • League table: Napoli — No. 8, 14 pts; Lazio — No. 1, 28 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
  • Lazio: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Napoli 1 win, Lazio 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Napoli — Lazio What is xG?1.5–1.2
Napoli not to lose72%
Lazio not to lose57%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes59%
Both teams to score: no41%
Total over 2.556%
Total under 2.544%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Napoli
  • Napoli goals
  • Lazio goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatNapoliLazio
Goals scored per match1.72.4
Goals conceded per match1.50.8
xG per match1.561.61
Opponents’ xG1.451.15
Shots14.713.8
On target5.74.6
Corners4.74.7
Cards1.31.6
Possession, %5354

Averages per match: Napoli — the last 10, Lazio — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Napoli

  • 01.11away · Juventus0:2
  • 28.10away · Monza4:1
  • 24.10Roma3:3
  • 20.10Bodø/Glimt4:3
  • 17.10away · Venezia0:1

Lazio

  • 01.11Cagliari2:1
  • 27.10away · Sassuolo6:2
  • 24.10Parma2:1
  • 18.10away · Juventus3:0
  • 11.10Monza3:1

Head to head

  • 18.04.2026Napoli — Lazio0:2
  • 04.01.2026Lazio — Napoli0:2
  • 15.02.2025Lazio — Napoli2:2
  • 08.12.2024Napoli — Lazio0:1
  • 05.12.2024Lazio — Napoli3:1

Full record: 22 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Champions LeagueLazio1091024–8+1628
2, Champions LeagueInter1081126–13+1325
7Juventus1052313–10+317
8Napoli1042417–13+414
9Bologna1042414–13+114

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie A on the same day

  • GenoaMilan
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
  • MonzaAtalanta
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
  • InterComo
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
  • FiorentinaJuventus
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →