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Serie A, round 11 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)

Monza — Atalanta

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Model prediction for 8 November

Monza25%
Draw26%
Atalanta49%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Atalanta are clear favourites: 49% against 25% for the opponent, draw 26%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Atalanta are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Atalanta are 95 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Monza — No. 18, 7 pts; Atalanta — No. 13, 11 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
  • Monza: 3 defeats in a row; Atalanta: winless in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Monza 0 wins, Atalanta 5.
  • Days of rest before the match: Monza 8, Atalanta 6.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Monza — Atalanta What is xG?1.2–1.7
Monza not to lose51%
Atalanta not to lose75%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes60%
Both teams to score: no40%
Total over 2.557%
Total under 2.543%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Monza
  • Monza goals
  • Atalanta goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatMonzaAtalanta
Goals scored per match1.71.6
Goals conceded per match2.02.2
xG per match1.641.90
Opponents’ xG1.341.71
Shots13.716.1
On target5.95.1
Corners4.35.2
Cards1.71.2
Possession, %4549

Averages per match: Monza — the last 10, Atalanta — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Monza

  • 31.10away · Bologna1:2
  • 28.10Napoli1:4
  • 23.10away · Torino2:3
  • 19.10Cagliari4:0
  • 11.10away · Lazio1:3

Atalanta

  • 02.11Parma0:3
  • 29.10away · Fiorentina2:2
  • 25.10Frosinone4:4
  • 22.10away · Ajax0:2
  • 18.10away · Milan2:3

Head to head

  • 04.05.2025Monza — Atalanta0:4
  • 30.10.2024Atalanta — Monza2:0
  • 21.04.2024Monza — Atalanta1:2
  • 02.09.2023Atalanta — Monza3:0
  • 04.06.2023Atalanta — Monza5:2

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
12Cagliari104159–15-613
13Atalanta1032516–20-411
14Lecce1030711–21-109
17Sassuolo1022616–26-108
18, RelegationMonza1021717–24-77
19, RelegationUdinese1012711–23-125

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie A on the same day

  • NapoliLazio
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
  • GenoaMilan
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
  • InterComo
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
  • FiorentinaJuventus
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →