Primera Nacional, playoff · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3)
Ferro Carril Oeste — Gimnasia y Tiro
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Ferro Carril Oeste are clear favourites: 45% against 24% for the opponent, draw 31%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Ferro Carril Oeste are 93 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 2 meetings: Ferro Carril Oeste 1 win, Gimnasia y Tiro 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ferro Carril Oeste — Gimnasia y Tiro What is xG? | 1.3–0.9 | |
| Ferro Carril Oeste not to lose | 76% | |
| Gimnasia y Tiro not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 39% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 61% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ferro Carril Oeste
- Ferro Carril Oeste goals
- Gimnasia y Tiro goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
Form
- 31.10away · Acassuso0:0
- 24.10CA Chaco For Ever0:3
- 18.10Racing de Córdoba1:0
- 11.10away · Central Norte1:1
- 03.10Deportivo Madryn0:2
- 02.11Quilmes0:1
- 25.10away · CA Ferrocarril Midland0:3
- 17.10Atlanta3:1
- 11.10away · Gimnasia Jujuy2:2
- 05.10away · San Martín de Tucumán0:1
Head to head
- 06.07.2025Ferro Carril Oeste — Gimnasia y Tiro0:0
- 02.03.2025Gimnasia y Tiro — Ferro Carril Oeste1:2
Primera Nacional on the same day
- Godoy CruzTristán Suárezpreliminary4531241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.1
- ColónCA Ferrocarril Midlandpreliminary4531251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- Deportivo MadrynDeportivo Maipúpreliminary5925161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- Deportivo MorónColegialespreliminary5328201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- AtlantaClub Atlético Estudiantespreliminary5029211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- Gimnasia JujuyAlmirante Brownpreliminary5227201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- TemperleyCiudad de Bolívarpreliminary6126141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →