Segunda Division, round 13 · Sunday, 8 November, 18:15 (UTC+3)

Girona — Almería

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Model prediction for 8 November

Girona44%

Draw27%

Almería29%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Girona are slightly stronger: 44% against 29%, draw 27%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

League table: Girona — No. 7, 21 pts; Almería — No. 2, 26 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
Almería: unbeaten in 5.
Last 5 meetings: Girona 3 wins, Almería 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Girona — Almería What is xG?		1.6–1.3
Girona not to lose		71%
Almería not to lose		56%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		61%
Both teams to score: no		39%
Total over 2.5		56%
Total under 2.5		44%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Girona
Girona goals
Almería goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Girona	Almería
Goals scored per match	2.0	2.0
Goals conceded per match	0.8	0.9
xG per match	1.44	1.45
Opponents’ xG	1.25	1.23
Shots	13.6	12.9
On target	5.0	4.6
Corners	3.3	3.5
Cards	2.3	2.2
Possession, %	48	52

Averages per match: Girona — the last 10, Almería — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Girona

31.10away · Real Sociedad B0:1
27.10away · CD Cuarte2:0
24.10Celta Fortuna5:1
18.10FC Andorra2:0
12.10away · Tenerife1:1

Almería

31.10away · Eibar1:1
27.10away · Castellonense2:1
24.10Real Oviedo2:2
17.10away · Real Sociedad B4:2
11.10Leganés3:0

Head to head

14.01.2024Almería — Girona0:0
22.10.2023Girona — Almería5:2
17.02.2023Girona — Almería6:2
20.10.2022Almería — Girona3:2
27.03.2022Almería — Girona0:1

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Castellón	12	8	3	1	23–5	+18	27
2, Promotion	Almería	12	8	2	2	23–10	+13	26
3, Promotion play-offs	Eibar	12	7	2	3	21–14	+7	23
6, Promotion play-offs	Sporting Gijón	12	7	1	4	13–13	0	22
7	Girona	12	6	3	3	22–11	+11	21
8	Burgos CF	12	6	3	3	17–13	+4	21

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

16:00
FC AndorraMallorca
342838
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
20:30
Las PalmasEldense
383032
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
20:30
Sporting GijónReal Valladolid
402931
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →