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Paraguayan Primera Division · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Martín Torres

Sportivo Trinidense — Rubio Ñú

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Model prediction and result

2:4Missed
Sportivo Trinidense60%
Draw24%
Rubio Ñú16%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:4: the model's most likely outcome, Sportivo Trinidense to win (60%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 60% fails in about 40 matches out of 100 on average.

Sportivo Trinidense are clear favourites: 60% against 16% for the opponent, draw 24%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 42%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Sportivo Trinidense are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
  • Sportivo Trinidense are 303 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • Sportivo Trinidense: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 3 meetings: Sportivo Trinidense 2 wins, Rubio Ñú 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sportivo Trinidense — Rubio Ñú What is xG?1.7–0.7
Sportivo Trinidense not to lose84%
Rubio Ñú not to lose40%
No draw76%
Both teams to score: yes42%
Both teams to score: no58%
Total over 2.544%
Total under 2.556%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Sportivo Trinidense
  • Sportivo Trinidense goals
  • Rubio Ñú goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 7′Mauricio Roldán · penalty · Rubio Ñú0:1
  2. 9′Marcelo Acosta · Rubio Ñú0:2
  3. 20′Rodrigo Ruiz Díaz · Rubio Ñú0:3
  4. 27′Javier Torrente · Rubio Ñú
  5. 30′Tobías Morinigo · Sportivo Trinidense
  6. 55′Luis Abreu · Sportivo Trinidense1:3
  7. 60′Mauricio Roldán · Rubio Ñú
  8. 60′Mauricio Roldán · Rubio Ñú1:4
  9. 70′Javier Vallejos · Rubio Ñú
  10. 73′Brian Blasi · Rubio Ñú
  11. 78′Axel Cañete · Sportivo Trinidense2:4
Substitutions (9)
  1. 46′Néstor Camacho ↔ Nicolás Maná · Sportivo Trinidense
  2. 46′Luis Abreu ↔ Tobías Morinigo · Sportivo Trinidense
  3. 46′Armando Ruiz Díaz ↔ César Benítez · Sportivo Trinidense
  4. 46′Luis De la Cruz ↔ Ariel Gauto · Sportivo Trinidense
  5. 51′David Villalba ↔ Diego Melgarejo · Sportivo Trinidense
  6. 62′Rodi Ferreira ↔ Sergio Fretes · Rubio Ñú
  7. 62′Rodrigo Rojas ↔ Mauricio Roldán · Rubio Ñú
  8. 69′Aaron Páez ↔ Rodrigo Ruiz Díaz · Rubio Ñú
  9. 78′William Mendieta ↔ Cristian Nuñez · Rubio Ñú

Match statistics

Sportivo TrinidenseRubio Ñú
  • 55Possession, %45
  • 16Shots19
  • 3On target8
  • 2Big chances2
  • 8Corners6
  • 16Fouls19
  • 2Offsides2
  • 1Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Sportivo Trinidense

  1. GKVíctor Samudio5.7
  2. DFAxel Cañete6.4
  3. DFAgustín Da Silveira6.1
  4. DFCésar Benítez45′5.5
  5. DFDiego Melgarejo51′5.9
  6. MFGustavo Viera (C)7.2
  7. MFAriel Gauto45′6.1
  8. MFJunior Gamarra5.9
  9. FWTobías Morinigo45′5.8
  10. FWClementino González6.4
  11. FWNicolás Maná45′6.1
Came on (5)
  1. MFLuis Abreu45′7.8
  2. DFLuis De la Cruz45′7.4
  3. FWNéstor Camacho45′6.9
  4. DFDavid Villalba39′6.3
  5. DFArmando Ruiz Díaz45′6.2

Rubio Ñú

  1. GKLautaro Maldonado6.6
  2. DFBrian Blasi6.8
  3. DFVíctor Cabañas6.4
  4. DFPedro Álvarez7.0
  5. DFJavier Vallejos (C)6.8
  6. MFTobías Leiva7.3
  7. MFCristian Nuñez78′7.2
  8. MFMarcelo Acosta8.9
  9. FWRodrigo Ruiz Díaz69′8.5
  10. FWMauricio Roldán62′9.0
  11. FWSergio Fretes62′6.6
Came on (4)
  1. MFWilliam Mendieta12′6.4
  2. DFRodi Ferreira28′6.5
  3. MFRodrigo Rojas28′6.7
  4. FWAaron Páez21′6.5

Form

Sportivo Trinidense

  • 24.10away · Nacional (PAR)1:0
  • 19.10Libertad1:0
  • 10.10away · Sportivo San Lorenzo1:1
  • 05.10Luqueño3:2
  • 27.09Cerro Porteño2:1

Rubio Ñú

  • 23.10Guaraní0:2
  • 17.10away · Recoleta0:1
  • 11.10Olimpia0:0
  • 06.10away · Sportivo Ameliano2:1
  • 26.092 de Mayo2:2

Head to head

  • 22.08.2026Rubio Ñú — Sportivo Trinidense0:0
  • 07.04.2026Sportivo Trinidense — Rubio Ñú4:0
  • 08.02.2026Rubio Ñú — Sportivo Trinidense0:1

Full record: 4 meetings →

Next matches

  • 2 de MayoSportivo Trinidense3 November · Paraguayan Primera
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
  • Rubio ÑúLuqueño6 November · Paraguayan Primera
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6

Paraguayan Primera on the same day

  • Guaraní2 de Mayo
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.3
  • RecoletaSportivo Ameliano
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →