UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Hapoel Beer Sheva — OFI Crete
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Hapoel Beer Sheva are clear favourites: 50% against 25% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Hapoel Beer Sheva are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva are 78 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Hapoel Beer Sheva — No. 25, 1 pt; OFI Crete — No. 18, 3 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hapoel Beer Sheva — OFI Crete What is xG? | 1.7–1.2 | |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva not to lose | 75% | |
| OFI Crete not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Hapoel Beer Sheva
- Hapoel Beer Sheva goals
- OFI Crete goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10away · AZ Alkmaar1:2
- 16.09Dinamo Zagreb0:0
- 03.11Austria Wien4:0
- 27.10away · Villarreal2:2
- 13.10Lech Poznań1:1
- 15.10away · Rennes1:2
- 10.10away · AEK Athens0:3
- 20.09Asteras Tripolis2:2
- 17.09Hoffenheim2:0
- 12.09away · Olympiacos1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | OFI Crete | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Torreense | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Levski Sofia | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 0 | -3 | 1 |
Europa League on the same day
- MilanFerencvárospreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Real SociedadLyonpreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- RennesOlympiacospreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary6022181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary2825472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →