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Ukrainian Premier League, round 11 · Monday, 2 November, (UTC+3) · Stadion Ukrajina

Karpaty — Kudrivka

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Model prediction and result

5:0Came true
Karpaty70%
Draw20%
Kudrivka11%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:0: the model's most likely outcome, Karpaty to win (70%), came true.

Karpaty are clear favourites: 70% against 11% for the opponent, draw 20%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Karpaty are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
  • Karpaty are 272 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Karpaty: winless in 4.
  • Last 2 meetings: Karpaty 0 wins, Kudrivka 0, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Karpaty — Kudrivka What is xG?2.1–0.8
Karpaty not to lose89%
Kudrivka not to lose30%
No draw80%
Both teams to score: yes49%
Both teams to score: no51%
Total over 2.554%
Total under 2.546%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Karpaty
  • Karpaty goals
  • Kudrivka goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 42′Maksym Melnychuk · Kudrivka
  2. 48′Iván Calero · Karpaty
  3. 50′Jan Kostenko · Karpaty1:0
  4. 54′Jan Kostenko · Karpaty2:0
  5. 56′Bogdan Veklyak · Kudrivka
  6. 73′Jan Kostenko · Karpaty3:0
  7. 80′Ambrosiy Chachua · Karpaty4:0
  8. 87′Volodymyr Antonyuk · Karpaty5:0
  9. 89′Artur Dumanyuk · Kudrivka
Substitutions (9)
  1. 61′Kostyantyn Bychek ↔ Rodion Plaksa · Kudrivka
  2. 61′Artur Dumanyuk ↔ Kaya Makosso · Kudrivka
  3. 64′Denys Miroshnichenko ↔ Iván Calero · Karpaty
  4. 77′Fellipe Vieira ↔ Nazariy Rusyn · Karpaty
  5. 77′Reynaldino Verley ↔ Raymond Owusu · Kudrivka
  6. 77′Kyrylo Sigeev ↔ Yevgeniy Smyrnyi · Kudrivka
  7. 78′Yaroslav Karabin ↔ Roman Vantukh · Karpaty
  8. 84′Vitaliy Kholod ↔ Vladyslav Baboglo · Karpaty
  9. 84′Volodymyr Antonyuk ↔ Ambrosiy Chachua · Karpaty

Match statistics

KarpatyKudrivka
  • 51Possession, %49
  • 12Shots5
  • 6On target1
  • 6Corners1
  • 1Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Karpaty

  1. GKRoman Mysak
  2. DFVladyslav Baboglo84′
  3. DFIván Calero64′
  4. DFRoman Vantukh78′
  5. DFRostyslav Lyakh
  6. DFTimur Stetskov
  7. MFMoha
  8. MFAmbrosiy Chachua84′
  9. FWXeber Alkain
  10. FWNazariy Rusyn77′
  11. FWJan Kostenko
Came on (5)
  1. DFDenys Miroshnichenko26′
  2. MFFellipe Vieira13′
  3. FWYaroslav Karabin12′
  4. DFVitaliy Kholod6′
  5. MFVolodymyr Antonyuk6′

Kudrivka

  1. GKAnton Yashkov
  2. DFDimitro Semenov
  3. DFBogdan Veklyak
  4. DFEvgeniy Pasich
  5. DFMaksym Melnychuk
  6. DFMyroslav Serdyuk
  7. MFYevgeniy Smyrnyi77′
  8. MFOleksandr Belyaev
  9. MFKaya Makosso61′
  10. MFRodion Plaksa61′
  11. FWRaymond Owusu77′
Came on (4)
  1. MFArtur Dumanyuk29′
  2. FWReynaldino Verley13′
  3. MFKyrylo Sigeev13′
  4. FWKostyantyn Bychek29′

Form

Karpaty

  • 25.10away · Chornomorets Odesa0:0
  • 18.10Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi2:2
  • 11.10away · Dynamo Kyiv0:1
  • 20.09Veres Rivne1:1
  • 11.09away · FC Kolos Kovalivka2:0

Kudrivka

  • 23.10away · Dynamo Kyiv1:3
  • 17.10Bukovyna Chernivtsi4:1
  • 11.10away · LNZ Cherkasy1:2
  • 03.10away · Veres Rivne1:2
  • 20.09FC Kolos Kovalivka2:3

Head to head

  • 08.03.2026Karpaty — Kudrivka1:1
  • 29.08.2025Kudrivka — Karpaty2:2

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4FC Kharkiv970218–7+1121
5Karpaty1154222–8+1419
6Zorya1153313–13018
15, RelegationKryvbas91357–15-86
16, RelegationKudrivka1112811–29-185

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • FC KharkivKarpaty7 November · Ukrainian Premier League
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
  • KudrivkaChornomorets Odesa7 November · Ukrainian Premier League
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6

Ukrainian Premier League on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →