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Ukrainian Premier League, round 11 · Monday, 2 November, (UTC+3) · Hirnyk Stadium

Kryvbas — Dynamo Kyiv

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Model prediction and result

0:2Came true
Kryvbas21%
Draw26%
Dynamo Kyiv53%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Dynamo Kyiv to win (53%), came true.

Dynamo Kyiv are clear favourites: 53% against 21% for the opponent, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 62%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Dynamo Kyiv are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
  • Dynamo Kyiv are 93 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Kryvbas: winless in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Kryvbas 0 wins, Dynamo Kyiv 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kryvbas — Dynamo Kyiv What is xG?1.2–1.9
Kryvbas not to lose47%
Dynamo Kyiv not to lose79%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes62%
Both teams to score: no38%
Total over 2.558%
Total under 2.542%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Kryvbas
  • Kryvbas goals
  • Dynamo Kyiv goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 18′Matviy Ponomarenko · Dynamo Kyiv0:1
  2. 33′Denys Pidgurskyi · Kryvbas
  3. 42′Volodymyr Vilivald · Kryvbas
  4. 43′Andriy Yarmolenko · penalty · Dynamo Kyiv0:2
  5. 48′Volodymyr Brazhko · Dynamo Kyiv
  6. 48′Giovany Herbert · Kryvbas
  7. 50′Andriy Yarmolenko · Dynamo Kyiv
  8. 52′Joseph Jones · Kryvbas
  9. 52′Mykola Shaparenko · Dynamo Kyiv
  10. 80′Matviy Ponomarenko · Dynamo Kyiv
  11. 86′Nazar Voloshyn · Dynamo Kyiv
Substitutions (10)
  1. 63′Dmytro Godya ↔ Roy Nawi · Kryvbas
  2. 63′Cyprian Kachwele ↔ Assane Seck · Kryvbas
  3. 63′Mykola Mykhaylenko ↔ Oleksandr Pikhalyonok · Dynamo Kyiv
  4. 63′Nazar Voloshyn ↔ Shola Ogundana · Dynamo Kyiv
  5. 74′Oleksandr Kamenskyi ↔ Giovany Herbert · Kryvbas
  6. 74′Yackson Rivas ↔ Bar Lin · Kryvbas
  7. 82′Pierre Mounguengue ↔ Matviy Ponomarenko · Dynamo Kyiv
  8. 82′Justin Lonwijk ↔ Mykola Shaparenko · Dynamo Kyiv
  9. 86′Santiago Cuiza ↔ Yaroslav Shevchenko · Kryvbas
  10. 90′Kristian Bilovar ↔ Oleksandr Tymchyk · Dynamo Kyiv

Match statistics

KryvbasDynamo Kyiv
  • 45Possession, %55
  • 14Shots4
  • 3On target2
  • 8Corners5
  • 4Yellow cards4
  • 0Red cards1

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Kryvbas

  1. GKOleksandr Kemkin
  2. DFJoao Machado
  3. DFVolodymyr Vilivald
  4. DFDenys Pidgurskyi
  5. DFThiago Borges
  6. DFJoseph Jones
  7. MFRoy Nawi63′
  8. MFGiovany Herbert74′
  9. MFYaroslav Shevchenko86′
  10. FWAssane Seck63′
  11. FWBar Lin74′
Came on (5)
  1. FWYackson Rivas16′
  2. FWSantiago Cuiza4′
  3. FWCyprian Kachwele27′
  4. FWOleksandr Kamenskyi16′
  5. MFDmytro Godya27′

Dynamo Kyiv

  1. GKGeorgiy Bushchan
  2. DFTomasz Kędziora
  3. DFOleksandr Tymchyk
  4. DFAliou Thiare
  5. DFVladyslav Dubinchak
  6. MFVolodymyr Brazhko
  7. MFMykola Shaparenko82′
  8. MFOleksandr Pikhalyonok63′
  9. FWAndriy Yarmolenko
  10. FWMatviy Ponomarenko82′
  11. FWShola Ogundana63′
Came on (4)
  1. FWNazar Voloshyn27′
  2. FWPierre Mounguengue8′
  3. MFMykola Mykhaylenko27′
  4. MFJustin Lonwijk8′

Form

Kryvbas

  • 25.10away · Bukovyna Chernivtsi0:0
  • 18.10LNZ Cherkasy0:3
  • 18.09away · Polissya Zhytomyr0:1
  • 05.09FC Kolos Kovalivka2:2
  • 30.08away · Chornomorets Odesa0:1

Dynamo Kyiv

  • 23.10Kudrivka3:1
  • 18.10away · Polissya Zhytomyr1:3
  • 11.10Karpaty1:0
  • 19.09away · Zorya2:0
  • 14.09Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi3:0

Head to head

  • 26.04.2026Kryvbas — Dynamo Kyiv5:6
  • 26.10.2025Dynamo Kyiv — Kryvbas4:0
  • 12.04.2025Kryvbas — Dynamo Kyiv0:2
  • 06.10.2024Dynamo Kyiv — Kryvbas2:1
  • 18.05.2024Dynamo Kyiv — Kryvbas3:1

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2, Europa League or Conference LeaguePolissya Zhytomyr1081123–8+1525
3, Europa League or Conference LeagueDynamo Kyiv1071216–9+722
4FC Kharkiv970218–7+1121
14, Relegation play-offObolon Kyiv101454–17-137
15, RelegationKryvbas91357–15-86
16, RelegationKudrivka1112811–29-185

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

Ukrainian Premier League on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →