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Ukrainian Premier League, round 11 · Monday, 2 November, (UTC+3) · Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Zorya — Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi

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Model prediction and result

1:0Came true
Zorya50%
Draw29%
Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi21%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Zorya to win (50%), came true.

Zorya are clear favourites: 50% against 21% for the opponent, draw 29%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Zorya are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
  • Zorya are 182 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi: winless in 5.
  • Last 2 meetings: Zorya 2 wins, Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Zorya — Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi What is xG?1.6–1.0
Zorya not to lose79%
Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi not to lose50%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.549%
Total under 2.551%

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  • All totals
  • Handicap Zorya
  • Zorya goals
  • Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 26′Igor Kiryckhancev · Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi
  2. 53′Sallieu Bah · penalty · Zorya1:0
  3. 60′Artem Kozak · Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi
Substitutions (10)
  1. 63′Vadym Sydun ↔ Artem Kozak · Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi
  2. 63′Kyrylo Kovalets ↔ Daniil Vashchenko · Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi
  3. 69′Artem Slesar ↔ Domagoj Jelavic · Zorya
  4. 69′Jakov Bašić ↔ Kyrylo Dryshliuk · Zorya
  5. 69′Ivan Bendera ↔ Vladyslav Moroz · Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi
  6. 85′Vitaliy Gorin ↔ Mykola Myronyuk · Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi
  7. 85′Jon Ceberio ↔ Igor Kiryckhancev · Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi
  8. 87′Dejan Popara ↔ Sallieu Bah · Zorya
  9. 87′Vasyl Kravets ↔ Ivan Nesterenko · Zorya
  10. 87′Andrija Janjic ↔ Igor Gorbach · Zorya

Match statistics

ZoryaEpitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi
  • 61Possession, %39
  • 9Shots3
  • 0On target0
  • 3Corners0
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Zorya

  1. GKOleksandr Saputin
  2. DFJordan
  3. DFIgor Perduta
  4. DFArtem Machelyuk
  5. MFKyrylo Dryshliuk69′
  6. MFMaksym Boyko
  7. MFBogdan Kushnirenko
  8. MFSallieu Bah87′
  9. FWIgor Gorbach87′
  10. FWDomagoj Jelavic69′
  11. FWIvan Nesterenko87′
Came on (5)
  1. DFVasyl Kravets3′
  2. DFAndrija Janjic3′
  3. FWArtem Slesar21′
  4. MFJakov Bašić21′
  5. MFDejan Popara3′

Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi

  1. GKNikita Fedotov
  2. DFIgor Kiryckhancev85′
  3. DFNil Coch
  4. DFOleksandr Klymets
  5. DFSerjan Repaj
  6. DFVladyslav Moroz69′
  7. MFMykola Myronyuk85′
  8. MFDaniil Vashchenko63′
  9. MFAndriy Lipovuz
  10. FWArtem Kozak63′
  11. FWMaksym Yevpak
Came on (5)
  1. DFVitaliy Gorin5′
  2. FWVadym Sydun27′
  3. MFJon Ceberio5′
  4. FWIvan Bendera21′
  5. MFKyrylo Kovalets27′

Form

Zorya

  • 24.10away · Shakhtar Donetsk0:0
  • 17.10Chornomorets Odesa2:1
  • 12.10away · Liviy Bereh3:1
  • 19.09Dynamo Kyiv0:2
  • 13.09away · Bukovyna Chernivtsi1:1

Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi

  • 24.10FC Kharkiv1:2
  • 18.10away · Karpaty2:2
  • 10.10away · FC Kolos Kovalivka1:3
  • 19.09Liviy Bereh0:2
  • 14.09away · Dynamo Kyiv0:3

Head to head

  • 12.04.2026Zorya — Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi1:0
  • 03.10.2025Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi — Zorya1:2

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
5Karpaty1154222–8+1419
6Zorya1153313–13018
7LNZ Cherkasy1043310–9+115
9Chornomorets Odesa102358–12-49
10Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi1123610–15-59
11Bukovyna Chernivtsi101637–12-59

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • Epitsentr Kamianets-PodilskyiKryvbas7 November · Ukrainian Premier League
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
  • ZoryaLNZ Cherkasy8 November · Ukrainian Premier League
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.1

Ukrainian Premier League on the same day

  • KryvbasDynamo Kyiv
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:3.3.2
  • KarpatyKudrivka
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 5:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →