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Ligue 1, round 10 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)

Lens — Marseille

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Model prediction for 8 November

Lens51%
Draw24%
Marseille25%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Lens are clear favourites: 51% against 25% for the opponent, draw 24%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 64%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Lens are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Lens are 104 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Lens — No. 9, 13 pts; Marseille — No. 6, 15 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Lens 2 wins, Marseille 3.
  • Days of rest before the match: Lens 9, Marseille 7.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lens — Marseille What is xG?1.9–1.4
Lens not to lose75%
Marseille not to lose49%
No draw76%
Both teams to score: yes64%
Both teams to score: no36%
Total over 2.562%
Total under 2.538%

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatLensMarseille
Goals scored per match1.31.7
Goals conceded per match1.61.7
xG per match1.361.41
Opponents’ xG1.552.29
Shots15.312.8
On target5.34.1
Corners6.44.5
Cards2.01.8
Possession, %5254

Averages per match: Lens — the last 10, Marseille — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Lens

  • 30.10away · Lille0:1
  • 24.10Paris FC2:1
  • 21.10away · Club Brugge0:3
  • 17.10away · Troyes3:1
  • 13.10Sporting CP0:2

Marseille

  • 01.11Toulouse2:0
  • 25.10Le Havre4:3
  • 22.10away · Sturm Graz0:1
  • 18.10away · Angers5:2
  • 15.10Olympiacos0:1

Head to head

  • 24.01.2026Marseille — Lens3:1
  • 25.10.2025Lens — Marseille2:1
  • 08.03.2025Marseille — Lens0:1
  • 23.11.2024Lens — Marseille1:3
  • 28.04.2024Marseille — Lens2:1

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
5, Europa League or Conference LeagueRennes951320–19+116
6, Europa League or Conference LeagueMarseille950420–13+715
7Monaco943212–10+215
8Nice942313–12+114
9Lens941416–13+313
10Brest933316–12+412

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ligue 1 on the same day

  • RennesLille
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • AngersNice
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
  • BrestLyon
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
  • Le HavreLorient
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
  • Le MansMonaco
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →