Ligue 1, round 10 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Rennes — Lille
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Rennes are slightly stronger: 44% against 30%, draw 26%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Rennes higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Rennes — No. 5, 16 pts; Lille — No. 2, 18 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Rennes 1 win, Lille 3, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Rennes 9, Lille 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rennes — Lille What is xG? | 1.6–1.3 | |
| Rennes not to lose | 70% | |
| Lille not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Rennes | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.93 | 1.24 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.85 | 1.22 |
| Shots | 18.0 | 11.0 |
| On target | 6.7 | 3.8 |
| Corners | 6.4 | 4.1 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Possession, % | 54 | 53 |
Form
- 30.10away · Nice2:5
- 25.10Strasbourg3:0
- 22.10away · Juventus2:2
- 18.10away · Paris FC3:4
- 15.10OFI Crete2:1
Head to head
- 15.03.2026Rennes — Lille1:2
- 03.01.2026Lille — Rennes0:2
- 16.02.2025Rennes — Lille0:2
- 24.11.2024Lille — Rennes1:0
- 10.03.2024Lille — Rennes2:2
Table
Ligue 1 on the same day
- 2527482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- 3726371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- 4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 1622622The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
- 5124251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →