Ligue 1, round 11 · Saturday, 21 November, 22:45 (UTC+3)

Lens — Toulouse

Model prediction for 21 November

Lens47%

Draw27%

Toulouse26%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lens are clear favourites: 47% against 26% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

By the strength ratings Lens are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Lens are 180 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Lens — No. 9, 13 pts; Toulouse — No. 12, 10 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Lens 3 wins, Toulouse 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lens — Toulouse What is xG?		1.6–1.2
Lens not to lose		74%
Toulouse not to lose		53%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		58%
Both teams to score: no		42%
Total over 2.5		54%
Total under 2.5		46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Lens
Lens goals
Toulouse goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Lens	Toulouse
Goals scored per match	1.3	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.6	1.3
xG per match	1.36	1.68
Opponents’ xG	1.55	1.19
Shots	15.3	11.8
On target	5.3	4.3
Corners	6.4	3.8
Cards	2.0	1.8
Possession, %	52	51

Averages per match: Lens — the last 10, Toulouse — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Lens

30.10away · Lille0:1
24.10Paris FC2:1
21.10away · Club Brugge0:3
17.10away · Troyes3:1
13.10Sporting CP0:2

Toulouse

01.11away · Marseille0:2
25.10Troyes0:0
16.10away · Le Mans3:0
10.10away · Monaco2:2
19.09Le Havre3:2

Head to head

21.04.2026Lens — Toulouse4:1
17.04.2026Lens — Toulouse3:2
02.01.2026Toulouse — Lens0:3
10.05.2025Toulouse — Lens1:1
05.01.2025Lens — Toulouse0:1

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
8	Nice	9	4	2	3	13–12	+1	14
9	Lens	9	4	1	4	16–13	+3	13
10	Brest	9	3	3	3	16–12	+4	12
11	Lorient	9	3	3	3	7–8	-1	12
12	Toulouse	9	2	4	3	12–13	-1	10
13	Strasbourg	9	3	1	5	17–19	-2	10

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ligue 1 on the same day

19:15
NiceParis Saint-Germainpreliminary
122068
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
22:45
LilleLyonpreliminary
432730
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:45
MonacoAuxerrepreliminary
711811
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
22:45
StrasbourgBrestpreliminary
422731
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →