Ligue 1, round 11 · Saturday, 21 November, 22:45 (UTC+3)

Strasbourg — Brest

Model prediction for 21 November

Strasbourg42%

Draw27%

Brest31%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Strasbourg are slightly stronger: 42% against 31%, draw 27%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 62%.

Why

By the strength ratings Strasbourg are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Strasbourg are 114 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Strasbourg — No. 13, 10 pts; Brest — No. 10, 12 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Strasbourg 1 win, Brest 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Strasbourg — Brest What is xG?		1.6–1.4
Strasbourg not to lose		69%
Brest not to lose		58%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		62%
Both teams to score: no		38%
Total over 2.5		58%
Total under 2.5		42%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Strasbourg
Strasbourg goals
Brest goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Strasbourg	Brest
Goals scored per match	2.2	1.7
Goals conceded per match	2.3	1.3
xG per match	1.32	1.95
Opponents’ xG	1.69	1.18
Shots	13.1	16.6
On target	5.2	5.6
Corners	2.8	4.5
Cards	1.7	1.4
Possession, %	47	48

Averages per match: Strasbourg — the last 10, Brest — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Strasbourg

01.11Auxerre5:1
25.10away · Rennes0:3
17.10Paris Saint-Germain1:3
11.10away · Nice1:2
19.09away · Paris FC1:2

Brest

02.11away · Lorient2:0
23.10Nice1:2
17.10away · Lille1:1
10.10Angers5:1
20.09away · Auxerre1:2

Head to head

13.05.2026Brest — Strasbourg1:2
30.11.2025Strasbourg — Brest1:2
23.02.2025Strasbourg — Brest0:0
30.11.2024Brest — Strasbourg3:1
24.02.2024Strasbourg — Brest0:3

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9	Lens	9	4	1	4	16–13	+3	13
10	Brest	9	3	3	3	16–12	+4	12
11	Lorient	9	3	3	3	7–8	-1	12
12	Toulouse	9	2	4	3	12–13	-1	10
13	Strasbourg	9	3	1	5	17–19	-2	10
14	Auxerre	9	3	1	5	13–23	-10	10

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ligue 1 on the same day

19:15
NiceParis Saint-Germainpreliminary
122068
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
22:45
LensToulousepreliminary
472726
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
22:45
LilleLyonpreliminary
432730
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:45
MonacoAuxerrepreliminary
711811
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →