Ligue 1, round 11 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Monaco — Auxerre
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Monaco are clear favourites: 71% against 11% for the opponent, draw 18%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Monaco are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
- Monaco are 200 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Monaco — No. 7, 15 pts; Auxerre — No. 14, 10 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Monaco 4 wins, Auxerre 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Monaco — Auxerre What is xG? | 2.2–0.9 | |
| Monaco not to lose | 89% | |
| Auxerre not to lose | 29% | |
| No draw | 82% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Monaco
- Monaco goals
- Auxerre goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Monaco | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| xG per match | 1.24 | 1.31 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| Shots | 11.7 | 11.1 |
| On target | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Corners | 3.7 | 4.8 |
| Cards | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 44 |
Form
- 01.11away · Paris FC1:3
- 25.10Lille1:1
- 22.10Freiburg3:0
- 18.10away · Lorient0:1
- 15.10away · CSKA Sofia2:1
- 01.11away · Strasbourg1:5
- 25.10Le Mans1:1
- 18.10away · Le Havre3:1
- 11.10away · Rennes1:4
- 20.09Brest2:1
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Monaco — Auxerre2:2
- 21.12.2025Auxerre — Monaco1:2
- 13.09.2025Auxerre — Monaco1:2
- 01.02.2025Monaco — Auxerre4:2
- 14.09.2024Auxerre — Monaco0:3
Table
Ligue 1 on the same day
- NiceParis Saint-Germainpreliminary1220682The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- LensToulousepreliminary4727261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- LilleLyonpreliminary4327301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- StrasbourgBrestpreliminary4227311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 71% will not happen in roughly 29 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →