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Ligue 1, round 11 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Lille — Lyon

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Model prediction for 21 November

Lille43%
Draw27%
Lyon30%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lille are slightly stronger: 43% against 30%, draw 27%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Lille are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
  • Lille are 90 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Lille — No. 2, 18 pts; Lyon — No. 3, 17 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Last 5 meetings: Lille 0 wins, Lyon 4, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lille — Lyon What is xG?1.5–1.2
Lille not to lose70%
Lyon not to lose57%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.552%
Total under 2.548%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Lille
  • Lille goals
  • Lyon goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatLilleLyon
Goals scored per match1.11.7
Goals conceded per match1.41.2
xG per match1.241.52
Opponents’ xG1.221.20
Shots11.012.3
On target3.85.2
Corners4.14.6
Cards1.71.3
Possession, %5350

Averages per match: Lille — the last 10, Lyon — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Lille

  • 03.11away · Bodø/Glimt0:0
  • 30.10Lens1:0
  • 25.10away · Monaco1:1
  • 21.10Galatasaray2:4
  • 17.10Brest1:1

Lyon

  • 01.11Angers2:0
  • 26.10away · Paris Saint-Germain0:2
  • 22.10away · Hoffenheim0:3
  • 18.10Nice2:1
  • 15.10Crystal Palace3:2

Head to head

  • 01.02.2026Lyon — Lille1:0
  • 11.01.2026Lille — Lyon1:2
  • 28.09.2025Lille — Lyon0:1
  • 05.04.2025Lyon — Lille2:1
  • 01.11.2024Lille — Lyon1:1

Full record: 23 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Champions LeagueParis Saint-Germain962121–10+1120
2, Champions LeagueLille953112–6+618
3, Champions LeagueLyon952215–7+817
4, Champions League qualifyingParis FC952216–10+617

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ligue 1 on the same day

  • NiceParis Saint-Germainpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
  • LensToulousepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
  • MonacoAuxerrepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
  • StrasbourgBrestpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →